Pfizer's 0.24% Gains on $540M Volume Rank 72nd as Obesity Bet and Patent Challenges Shape 2026 Outlook

Market Snapshot

Pfizer (PFE) saw modest gains on December 26, 2025, with its stock rising 0.24% amid a trading volume of $540 million, ranking 72nd in market activity for the day. The slight increase followed a mixed performance in recent weeks, during which the stock lagged behind the S&P 500, declining 2.6% over the past month compared to the index’s 2.6% gain. Despite near-term volatility, the stock’s valuation appears attractive relative to industry peers, trading at a forward P/E of 8.18, below the sector average of 17.40.

Key Drivers

Erosion of Pandemic Franchise and Strategic Rebalancing

Bank of America analyst Jason Gerberry reduced Pfizer’s price target to $27 from $28 in late December while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing a steeper-than-expected decline in the company’s pandemic-related revenue. The 2026 guidance highlighted a rapid erosion of its COVID-19 franchise, prompting the firm to revise its near-term financial forecasts downward. This shift has redirected investor focus to Pfizer’s obesity strategy, particularly its recently acquired Metsera assets, which are seen as critical to capturing a share of the high-growth weight-loss market. Analysts await clinical trial results to assess the potential of these programs to differentiate Pfizer in a sector dominated by competitors like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

Oncology Pipeline and Bladder Cancer Breakthrough

Positive developments in Pfizer’s oncology division provided a counterbalance to pandemic-related headwinds. The company announced topline results from the Phase 3 EV-304 trial (KEYNOTE-B15) in collaboration with Astellas, demonstrating that the combination of PADCEV and Keytruda significantly improved survival rates for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) patients. The trial, which targeted cisplatin-eligible patients, met both primary endpoints for event-free and overall survival, as well as a secondary endpoint for pathologic complete response. These findings position the drug combination as a potential platinum-free standard of care for MIBC, a condition affecting ~184,000 patients globally annually. The success builds on earlier EV-303 trial data, reinforcing Pfizer’s ambitions in oncology.

Patent Expirations and Long-Term Growth Strategies

Pfizer faces near-term revenue pressure from patent expirations of key drugs like Eliquis, Ibrance, and Xeljanz between 2026 and 2030. However, the company is prioritizing late-stage R&D projects to offset these losses. Its oncology pipeline includes candidates such as vepdegestrant (for ER+/HER2- breast cancer) and atirmociclib (for HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer), with eight or more potential blockbusters expected by 2030. Additionally, the $10 billion acquisition of Metsera and the licensing of YaoPharma’s GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity underscore Pfizer’s commitment to high-growth therapeutic areas. These initiatives aim to sustain revenue streams post-LOE and counterbalance the competitive landscape in oncology, where rivals like Merck and AstraZeneca are expanding their market share.

Valuation and Earnings Outlook

Analysts remain cautious about Pfizer’s near-term earnings trajectory. Zacks Investment Research notes that the company’s consensus earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined slightly, reflecting ongoing revenue pressures. For the current quarter, Pfizer is projected to report $0.58 per share, a 7.9% year-over-year drop, while 2026 estimates stand at $3.04 per share, down 2.2%. Despite these trends, the stock’s valuation remains compelling, with a Zacks Value Style Score of A and a price-to-earnings ratio below its five-year average. However, the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) suggests that the stock may continue to underperform relative to broader market gains in the short term.

Competitive Landscape and Market Position

Pfizer’s strategic investments in obesity and oncology are being closely watched against a backdrop of intense competition. In oncology, Merck’s Keytruda and AstraZeneca’s Tagrisso continue to dominate sales, while in the obesity space, Eli Lilly’s Wegovy and Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic maintain market leadership. Pfizer’s ability to differentiate its offerings—through innovative pipeline assets like dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitors and GLP-1/GIPR combinations—will be pivotal. The recent approval of Padcev in combination with Keytruda for MIBC further highlights the company’s capacity to expand existing products, though long-term success hinges on the performance of its obesity and oncology portfolios.