Petrobras Climbs 0.68% Amid Policy Scrutiny Ranks 492nd in $0.21B Trading Volume

On August 20, 2025, Brazilian equities saw mixed performance, with Petrobras (PBR) rising 0.68% to close at $11.94 as the stock ranked 492nd in daily trading volume of $0.21 billion. The move followed renewed scrutiny over Brazil’s energy policy shift, as Petrobras warned that the government’s new reference oil price framework could undermine the economic viability of post-salt and onshore oil projects. The company highlighted that post-salt fields, already less profitable than high-value pre-salt reserves, face heightened fiscal pressure under the revised rules, which treat both production types similarly for tax and royalty calculations.

The regulatory change, approved by Brazil’s oil regulator ANP in July, aims to boost state revenue by an estimated $184 million by year-end. However, Petrobras cautioned that the policy risks deterring investment in underdeveloped reserves. While the refining sector has welcomed the move for its potential to balance domestic and export markets, the energy giant emphasized the tension between short-term fiscal gains and long-term sector sustainability. The adjustment could force operators to allocate capital away from exploration in favor of paying higher obligations, potentially slowing the development of untapped resources.

Strategically, the policy debate underscores Brazil’s broader challenge of balancing public revenue needs with private sector incentives. Petrobras, a cornerstone of the country’s energy landscape, has called for careful recalibration to avoid stifling future production. The stock’s modest gain suggests investor uncertainty about the company’s ability to navigate the evolving regulatory environment while maintaining project competitiveness in non-pre-salt areas.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day from 2022 to now delivered moderate returns. The 1-day return was 0.98%, with a total return of 31.52% over 365 days. This indicates the strategy captured some short-term momentum but was subject to market fluctuations. It performed best in June 2023, with returns of 7.02%, and worst in September 2022, with a return of -4.20%. Overall, the strategy showed volatility but a general upward trend, making it suitable for traders looking for short-term opportunities.