Petrobras 2Q sales $21.04B

Petrobras 2Q sales $21.04B

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is set to release its second-quarter earnings on Aug. 7, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings at 71 cents per share on revenues of $20.8 billion. Delving into the factors influencing PBR’s performance in the upcoming quarter, it is essential to first consider the company’s previous-quarter performance.

In the first quarter of 2025, Petrobras missed the consensus mark due to lower downstream production and a decline in realized oil prices. The company reported adjusted earnings per ADS of 62 cents, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 92 cents. Additionally, the company’s quarterly revenues of $21 billion missed the consensus estimate of $21.6 billion. Over the past four quarters, PBR has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times and missed once, resulting in an average surprise of 3.3% [1].

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBR’s second-quarter bottom line has been revised 11% upward in the past seven days, indicating 51.1% year-over-year growth. However, the consensus estimate for revenues shows an 11.3% decline from the year-ago period [1].

Several factors are likely to have influenced PBR’s performance in the second quarter. According to the company’s ‘Production and Sales Report’ issued in July 2025, PBR is expected to have recorded a strong second quarter with total oil, gas, and natural gas liquids production rising 5% quarter over quarter to 2.91 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboed). This growth was driven by ramp-ups at key FPSOs, peak production at Marechal Duque de Caxias, and the startup of Alexandre de Gusmão in the Mero field [1].

Refining performance also improved, with REPLAN’s new HDT unit beginning operations in May and increasing S-10 diesel output by 63 mbpd and aviation fuel by 21 mbpd. Overall oil product production rose 1.4% to 1,730 mbpd, with diesel up 2.4% to 680 mbpd. Petrobras processed a record 72% of pre-salt oil in the first half of 2025, indicating its strategy to produce higher-value and cleaner fuels [1].

Despite these positive developments, the company sustained higher losses due to stoppages and maintenance, as well as the natural decline in production [1].

The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for PBR this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, but this is not the case for PBR, which currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00% [1].

Investors should closely monitor PBR’s Q2 earnings report for updates on the company’s production and refining performance, as well as any changes in the revenue outlook. Additionally, investors may want to consider other energy stocks with a favorable combination of elements to post an earnings beat, such as Calumet, Inc. (CLMT), Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP), and HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) [1].

Historically, PBR’s stock has shown a positive trend following earnings releases. From 2022 to the present, the stock has delivered a 3-day win rate of 64.29%, a 10-day win rate of 57.14%, and a 30-day win rate of 64.29% after earnings announcements. The maximum return observed during this period was 4.15% on the earnings release date in July 2025. These results suggest that while short-term volatility is possible, a simple buy-and-hold strategy around earnings dates has historically offered favorable odds for investors.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/petrobras-report-q2-earnings-whats-124000295.html
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:c0c805cfc094b:0-petrobras-to-report-q2-earnings-what-s-in-the-offing-for-the-stock/