The Persson Family's Strategic Share Buyouts: A Prelude to H&M's Potential Delisting

The Persson family's relentless accumulation of H&M shares through Ramsbury Invest has ignited a firestorm of speculation about the company's future. With their stake now at 64% of the capital and 85% of voting rights, the family's ownership strategy—accelerating from 35.5% in 2016—has positioned them to potentially delist H&M by 2030. This move, if realized, would align with broader trends in retail privatization, where private equity and family-controlled firms seek to escape the rigidity of public markets. But what does this mean for investors, and how does it reflect the evolving governance and risk dynamics in the sector?

Corporate Governance: A Family's Tightening Grip

H&M's corporate governance structure has long been a blend of family control and public accountability. The Perssons, however, have increasingly prioritized long-term strategic vision over short-term shareholder returns. Karl-Johan Persson, the chairman, has openly criticized the “short-term profit focus” of public markets, while his father, Stefan, has reinvested dividends to further consolidate ownership. This strategy mirrors the governance models of private equity-backed firms, where centralized decision-making and reduced transparency are common.

The family's opacity—refusing to disclose executive shareholdings and managing sudden leadership changes—has raised red flags among institutional investors. Anders Oscarsson of AMF, Sweden's largest pension fund, warns that a delisting would “reduce visibility and flexibility,” echoing concerns about the erosion of minority shareholder rights. Meanwhile, H&M's recent appointment of Helena Helmersson (a former CEO) to Mango's board highlights the industry's shift toward expert-led governance, contrasting with the Perssons' insular approach.

Private Equity Trends and Retail Delistings: A Perfect Storm

The retail sector is witnessing a surge in delistings, driven by private equity's appetite for operational flexibility and strategic reinvention. In 2025, the global private equity market is projected to allocate $300 billion to retail, with 40% of deals targeting delisted or underperforming brands. This trend is fueled by the need to navigate volatile trade environments—such as U.S. tariffs and supply chain disruptions—and to pivot toward e-commerce and sustainability.

H&M's potential privatization fits neatly into this framework. A delisting would allow the Perssons to bypass public market pressures, streamline decision-making, and invest in long-term initiatives like digital transformation and circular fashion. However, the financial hurdles are significant. At current valuations, a full buyout would require at least 70 billion Swedish kronor, likely financed through debt. This mirrors the debt-heavy strategies of private equity firms, which often leverage balance sheets to execute takeovers.

Investment Implications: Valuation Re-Rating and Risk Mitigation

For investors, a potential delisting presents a dual-edged sword. On one hand, a privatization could trigger a valuation re-rating if the Perssons unlock value through strategic overhauls. The family's control over 70% of voting rights means they could pivot H&M toward high-margin ventures, such as expanding its circular fashion initiatives or deepening its digital footprint. On the other hand, the debt burden required for a buyout could strain liquidity, reducing flexibility in a volatile trade environment.

The German legislative changes under the Zweites Zukunftsfinanzierungsgesetz (ZuFinG II) also add complexity. While the law streamlines delisting procedures, it introduces appraisal proceedings that could delay or complicate the process. For H&M, this means minority shareholders might demand premiums, inflating the cost of a buyout.

Strategic Recommendations for Investors

1. Monitor Ownership Thresholds: Track Ramsbury Invest's share purchases and the family's proximity to 90% ownership, which would trigger a delisting request.
2. Assess Debt Capacity: Evaluate H&M's balance sheet and the feasibility of financing a buyout without compromising operational flexibility.
3. Diversify Exposure: Given the uncertainty, investors should diversify into other fast-fashion players (e.g., Inditex) or private equity-backed retail funds to hedge against H&M's potential delisting.
4. Factor in ESG Trends: H&M's sustainability efforts, including its top ranking by Stand.earth, could enhance post-delisting valuations if the company leverages green credentials to attract impact investors.

Conclusion: A Delisting on the Horizon?

The Persson family's share buyouts are not merely a confidence play—they are a calculated move toward privatization, driven by both emotional ties to the brand and strategic imperatives in a shifting retail landscape. While the timing remains uncertain, the broader trends in private equity and corporate governance suggest that H&M's delisting is not a question of if, but when. For investors, the key lies in balancing the potential for value creation with the risks of debt-driven overleveraging and reduced transparency. As the retail sector continues to evolve, H&M's journey may serve as a case study in the trade-offs between public accountability and private agility.