The Persson Family's Aggressive H&M Share Buy-In and Its Implications for a Potential Take-Private Scenario

The Persson family, the founding dynasty of H&M, has embarked on a strategic and financially significant campaign to consolidate its ownership of the fast-fashion giant. By the end of May 2025, the family's holding company, Ramsbury Invest, controlled over 64% of H&M's shares—a 29% increase since 2023. This aggressive accumulation, fueled by reinvested dividends and a disciplined share-buying strategy, has reignited speculation that the family may pursue a delisting of H&M within the next five years. For investors, the implications of this insider-driven consolidation are profound, touching on governance, financial performance, and the broader retail landscape.

Strategic Motivations: Control, Flexibility, and Long-Term Vision

The Persson family's share purchases are not merely an expression of confidence but a calculated move to secure operational autonomy. By amassing 64% of H&M's shares and 85% of its voting rights, the family has positioned itself to influence—or dictate—the company's strategic direction. Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Cochrane notes that the family's reinvestment of dividends has enabled a “self-sustaining cycle” of share accumulation, with the potential to reach 90% ownership by 2027. At that threshold, the family could legally initiate a delisting, a move that would remove H&M from the Stockholm stock exchange and eliminate public market scrutiny.

This strategy aligns with broader industry trends. As global trade tensions escalate—exemplified by U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs—retailers are increasingly seeking the flexibility of private ownership. A delisting would allow H&M to sidestep quarterly earnings pressures and focus on long-term innovation, such as its recent sustainability initiatives and digital omnichannel integration. However, critics argue that such a move could reduce transparency and limit shareholder liquidity, a concern echoed by Anders Oscarsson of AMF, who warns of a “Hotel California” scenario where investors find it difficult to exit.

Financial Performance: Resilience Amid Challenges

H&M's 2025 financial results reflect a mixed bag of resilience and vulnerability. While the company reported a 1% increase in local-currency sales in Q2, its operating margin contracted to 10.4% from 11.9% in 2024, driven by higher freight costs and currency headwinds. The share price has declined by 9% year-to-date, trading at 137 SEK per share, a 60% drop from its peak in 2015.

Despite these challenges, H&M has made strides in key areas. Its digital transformation, including a revamped online platform and omnichannel integration, has improved customer engagement. The company's sustainability efforts, recognized by Stand.earth as the fashion industry's top performer in fossil fuel reduction, also position it to capitalize on ESG-driven consumer trends. However, margins remain under pressure from competitors like Shein and Zara, which leverage agile supply chains to outpace H&M's traditional fast-fashion model.

Market Signals and Analyst Perspectives

The Persson family's share purchases have sent clear signals to the market. With Ramsbury Invest acquiring 42.75 million shares in H1 2025—surpassing the 56.85 million shares bought in all of 2024—the family is signaling a belief in H&M's intrinsic value. Analysts like Niklas Ekman of DNB Carnegie argue that the family's actions suggest a “non-financial” motive: the desire to reclaim full control of a company that has been publicly traded since 1974.

Yet, the financial feasibility of a delisting remains uncertain. At H&M's current market cap of 187 billion SEK ($19.7 billion), the Persson family would need to raise at least 70 billion SEK to acquire the remaining 36% of shares. This would likely require debt financing, which could constrain operational flexibility—a trade-off that analysts like Peter Magnusson of Cicero Fonder caution against.

Investment Implications: Balancing Risk and Opportunity

For investors, the potential delisting of H&M presents a dual-edged sword. On one hand, a private H&M could streamline decision-making and prioritize long-term innovation, potentially unlocking value through sustainability and digital initiatives. On the other, a delisting would eliminate liquidity for public shareholders, a risk that has historically deterred institutional investors.

Given the current valuation, H&M's shares appear undervalued relative to its peers, particularly in light of its strong ESG credentials. However, the company's ability to stabilize margins and execute its restructuring plan will be critical. Investors should monitor key metrics: the success of its Brazil expansion, the effectiveness of its share buyback program, and the trajectory of its gross margins.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for H&M

The Persson family's aggressive share accumulation is a pivotal development in H&M's history. While the prospect of a delisting remains speculative, the family's actions underscore a strategic shift toward long-term control and operational flexibility. For investors, the key question is whether H&M can leverage this insider-driven momentum to outperform in a volatile retail landscape. Those willing to bet on the company's resilience and innovation may find value in its current valuation, but caution is warranted given the risks of reduced liquidity and external financing challenges.

In the end, H&M's future will hinge on its ability to balance the demands of a rapidly evolving market with the strategic clarity that only full ownership can provide.