Persistent Call for Oil as Supply Shortage Expected by End of 2025, Occidental Warns

Oil will return to a bull market trajectory due to a supply shortage expected by the end of 2025, The Occidental CEO has warned.

In an interview with CNBC, Hollub stated that the world is currently not replacing crude reserves quickly enough to meet anticipated demand.

97% of the oil in production today was discovered in the 20th century, and less than half of the crude produced over the past decade has been replaced, She said. Therefore, significant supply shortages may happen within a few years.

Currently, despite conflicts in the Middle East, the oil market remains oversupplied, which has helped keep oil prices low. Record oil production in the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana, along with a slowing economy in China, has decreased demand.

The market is out of balance right now, but this is a short-term demand issue. It's going to be a long-term supply issue, she said. Notably, Hollub predicted in December that WTI would average around $80 in 2024, which is 10% above the current level.

OPEC predicts that by 2025, global oil demand will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day, surpassing the production growth of 1.3 million barrels per day outside the cartel. This suggests a potential supply deficit unless OPEC boosts its current production.

Recently, Saudi Arabia's Aramco halted plans to increase maximum oil production capacity. The world's largest crude exporter stated that it had been ordered by the Saudi Ministry of Energy to maintain its Maximum Sustainable Capacity at current levels, despite the investment of several years and billions of dollars.