Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-22

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• Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) declined sharply from $0.238 to $0.2176, with volatility intensifying after 18:00 ET.
• RSI-14 fell into oversold territory, while MACD turned negative, confirming bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, particularly in the 22:45–23:45 ET window, with notional turnover exceeding $120,000.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed ahead of the drop, indicating a period of consolidation before a breakout.
• Key support tested at $0.2200–0.2180, with buyers stepping in briefly in the early morning, but resistance remains firm above $0.2260.

24-Hour Price Summary and Momentum

Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) opened at $0.237 on 2025-10-21 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2217 on 2025-10-22 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.2384 and a low of $0.2176. Total 15-minute volume over 24 hours was 273,992.65, and notional turnover amounted to $68,203.46. The market appears to have entered a bearish phase, with significant bearish momentum and a lack of follow-through buying.

A strong bearish reversal pattern formed around 20:30 ET, where price broke through a key support level near $0.2280 and continued lower into the night. A bearish engulfing pattern became evident on the 15-minute chart between 20:30–21:00 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels appear to be at $0.2180–0.2200, where price has found multiple short-term bids, and $0.2250, a level that has shown resistance since the morning. A strong support zone exists between $0.2176 and $0.2185, which was briefly tested during the late evening selloff. Resistance above $0.2260 could be a critical level to watch in the coming 24 hours, as a successful breakout might trigger a partial retracement.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent low to high ($0.2176 to $0.2384) show key levels at $0.2321 (38.2%) and $0.2255 (61.8%). These levels may serve as potential price targets or areas of consolidation in the near term.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart both show bearish divergence, with the 20-period line crossing below the 50-period line in the late evening, forming a bearish death cross. This confirms a shift in momentum and could signal further short-term weakness.

The RSI-14 dropped into the 25–30 range in the early morning, indicating oversold conditions. While this might suggest a short-term rebound, the MACD has turned bearish, with the histogram showing negative divergence and a bearish crossover of the signal line. This suggests that while short-term buyers may step in, the broader bearish trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between 18:00 and 20:00 ET, followed by a sharp breakout to the downside. This is a classic sign of a volatility contraction preceding a sharp move. Price has remained below the 20-period SMA for the majority of the 24-hour window, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume and notional turnover were concentrated in two key periods:
1. 22:45–23:45 ET, with a large-volume candle showing a sharp selloff (volume: 122,240.05) and turnover of nearly $27,000.
2. 00:45–01:45 ET, with another significant drop in price and high turnover (volume: ~136,400; turnover: ~$30,000).

There was a noticeable divergence between volume and price during the early morning, where volume increased but price continued to fall, suggesting weak follow-through from buyers. This is a bearish sign and suggests that any short-covering or bounce may be short-lived.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described earlier relies on RSI-14 < 30 as the oversold threshold and assumes a 3-day holding window for each signal. While the data for “HOLD.P – Harbor Alpha Layering ETF” could not be retrieved, the RSI logic used aligns well with the bearish action observed in PERPUSDT today.

Applying a similar strategy to PERPUSDT, an RSI-14 drop below 30 would have triggered a potential short signal around 00:30–01:00 ET. Holding for three days would have captured the continued bearish move into the following day, assuming no overlapping signals were used. This highlights the importance of confirming the correct ticker and parameters before proceeding with a full backtest. Additionally, a fixed 3-day holding window may need to be adapted if volatility is expected to rise, as seen in PERPUSDT’s sharp move.