Perpetual Protocol/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price action showed strong bearish momentum, with a 24-hour low of 0.1278 and close at 0.1337.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, and volume spiked during the downward move.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the decline, highlighting rising volatility.

Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) opened at 0.1426 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1594, and closed at 0.1337 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Total 24-hour volume reached approximately 13.68 million, with a notional turnover of ~$2.23 million. The price moved in a bearish direction, with a clear breakdown from key resistance levels.

The candlestick structure over the 24-hour period displayed multiple bearish formations. On the 15-minute chart, a large bearish engulfing pattern formed between 18:30–18:45 ET on 2025-11-10, followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows. A doji appeared near the 24-hour low at 0.1290, suggesting a potential short-term balance point. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirmed the downtrend, with price remaining below both. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD remained negative throughout the period, with the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum as the price declined. RSI dropped to 25 by the 24-hour low, signaling oversold conditions. However, a failure to rebound above the 40 level may prolong the downward trend. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the decline, indicating heightened volatility, with the price nearing the lower band at key points.

Volume surged during the downward movement, particularly around the 18:30–20:30 ET window, with notional turnover reaching ~$500,000 at the 18:30 candle. This volume confirmed the bearish move rather than creating divergence. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.1594 high to the 0.1278 low highlighted potential support at 0.1432 (38.2%) and 0.1347 (61.8%). Price briefly tested the 0.1347 level before bouncing higher, suggesting a possible short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy for this pair could involve a short-biased approach using RSI(14) to identify oversold conditions and signal entries for long positions during bounces or short trades if bearish momentum persists. Given the recent RSI reading of 25 and the price near 61.8% Fibonacci support, a buy on a confirmed close above 0.1347 could be tested with a stop-loss below 0.1300. The 15-minute MACD and moving averages could be used to time entry and exit signals. Daily volume could serve as a filter—only entering trades when volume exceeds average levels, confirming strength in the trend. A stop-loss of -5% or a trailing stop could also be integrated to manage risk. This strategy could be backtested from 2022-01-01 to today to evaluate its robustness.