Perpetua Resources: A Critical Minerals Catalyst with Near-Term Production Clarity and Undiscounted Reserve Value

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ approval of the final federal permit for Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite Gold Project on May 19, 2025, marks a seismic shift for the company’s valuation and strategic positioning. This milestone eliminates regulatory uncertainty for a project that holds 4.8 million ounces of gold reserves and 148 million pounds of antimony—the only domestic source of this critical mineral essential for defense, EV batteries, and energy storage. With gold prices hovering near $2,000/oz and antimony demand surging amid China’s export restrictions, Perpetua stands at the intersection of geopolitical urgency, battery commodity scarcity, and underappreciated reserve value. Here’s why this is a rare “buy now” opportunity.

The Permit Unlock: Regulatory Risk Eliminated, Production Path Clear

Perpetua’s permitting journey—concluded with the Clean Water Act Section 404 permit—has been a decade-long grind. The final stamp of approval removes the most significant overhang for investors: regulatory delays. The project now advances directly to securing state permits and financing, with construction expected to begin by late 2025. This clarity is critical. Unlike peers mired in litigation or permit purgatory, Perpetua’s timeline is now measurable, not theoretical.

The project’s dual focus—gold as a macro hedge and antimony as a supply chain linchpin—adds further urgency. Antimony’s role in liquid metal batteries (e.g., Ambri’s $1.8B partnership) and its classification as a “critical mineral” by the U.S. government ensure policy tailwinds. With China controlling 50% of global antimony production and halting exports to the U.S. in 2024, Perpetua’s reserves are a national security asset—not just a mining play.

Valuation: A $832M EV with $14.5B in Reserve Value? The Numbers Tell a Story

Perpetua’s enterprise value (EV) of $832 million stands in stark contrast to its $14.5 billion in undiscounted gold and antimony reserves (assuming $2,000/oz gold and $2/lb antimony). By comparison, peers like junior miners focused on single commodities (e.g., lithium or copper) trade at EV/reserve ratios 2–3x higher, despite lacking Perpetua’s dual strategic asset base.

• Antimony’s premium: At $2/lb (a conservative estimate given its scarcity), the 148M lb reserve alone equals $296 million—36% of Perpetua’s current EV.
• Gold’s leverage: With 4.8M oz at $2,000/oz, the gold component is worth $9.6 billion. Even a 50% discount to reflect development costs leaves $4.8 billion in gold value, far exceeding the company’s current valuation.

Perpetua’s valuation is structurally undervalued because the market has yet to price in the removal of regulatory risk and the project’s alignment with U.S. critical mineral mandates. The Defense Production Act’s $59.2 million grant for construction readiness further underscores the project’s strategic priority—no small factor in an era of supply chain nationalism.

Production Timeline: A 2027 Gold-Antimony Double Dividend

The Stibnite Gold Project’s feasibility study envisions 450,000 oz of gold annually during its first four years of production, with antimony output of ~24.7 million lbs/year. This timeline is now credible, as the final permit eliminates the “if” and focuses on the “when.”

• Antimony’s ESG angle: The project’s environmental benefits—restoring 11,548 hectares of degraded land and rehabilitating the Salmon River watershed—add to its appeal in an ESG-conscious market.
• Gold’s floor: With central banks buying gold at record rates and the $2,000/oz level holding firm, the project’s high-grade gold reserves (among the U.S.’s best) provide a low-cost, high-margin anchor to Perpetua’s cash flows.

Risks? Yes, But Overblown

Critics will cite permitting hurdles and financing risks. However:
1. Permits are finalized—the U.S. Forest Service’s January 2025 Record of Decision and Army Corps’ May approval leave only state-level permits, which are routine.
2. Financing is on track: Perpetua’s $59.2M DPA grant and potential EXIM Bank support for a $2.2B loan reduce equity dilution risks.
3. Antimony’s geopolitical tailwinds: The U.S. is desperate for domestic supply.

Conclusion: A Once-in-a-Decade Catalyst to Own

Perpetua Resources is no longer a “story stock”—it’s a near-term producer with reserves that dwarf its valuation. With gold at $2,000 and antimony demand soaring, the company’s path to $1 billion+ annual revenue is clear. Investors should act now: the regulatory overhang is gone, the production timeline is certain, and the EV/reserve discount is too stark to ignore.

Buy now. The Stibnite Gold Project is the rare mining equity where valuation math, strategic tailwinds, and execution certainty align.