PERP/USDT Market Overview – 2025-11-10

• PERP/USDT fell to 0.1444, testing key support after a 10% decline.
• Volume surged above 1M USDT around the support level, suggesting strong interest.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 25, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the breakdown, signaling a likely move.
• No clear reversal pattern confirmed yet; momentum remains bearish.

Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERP/USDT) opened at 0.1530 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1588 before declining to a 24-hour low of 0.1408 on 2025-11-10 at 17:00 ET. The pair closed at 0.1427 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window exceeded 2.38 million PERP, while notional turnover approached 350,000 USDT. Price action reflected heightened volatility and bearish sentiment.

The 15-minute chart displayed several key support levels, notably at 0.1444 USDT, where price consolidated briefly and faced buying pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 18:30 ET as the price dropped sharply from 0.1567 to 0.1528 within one candle. A doji later formed at 0.1530, signaling indecision. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price, confirming a bearish bias on the shorter time frame. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages were in a descending alignment, reinforcing the bearish trend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 25 at 16:45 ET, entering oversold territory and indicating a potential short-term rebound. However, the bearish momentum remained strong as the MACD histogram continued to expand downward. Bollinger Bands contracted between 01:45 and 03:30 ET before price broke decisively below the lower band, signaling a breakout in line with the bearish trend. The volatility expansion aligned with the breakdown in support, confirming the move.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the most recent swing from 0.1588 to 0.1408 showed the 0.1444 level as the 38.2% retracement level, which held briefly. The 61.8% level is currently at 0.1471, suggesting a potential near-term resistance if a bounce occurs. Volume surged above 1M USDT near the 0.1444 level, supporting the idea of a possible short-term bounce. However, divergences were noted in the final hours: price continued to fall while volume waned, hinting at exhausted selling pressure.

While a rebound off 0.1444 may offer a short-term buying opportunity, the broader trend remains bearish, with price hovering near key Fibonacci and Bollinger levels. A close above 0.1471 could signal a test of the 0.1500 level, but failure to hold above 0.1444 may extend the decline toward 0.1400 or lower. Investors should monitor the 0.1471 level for potential reversal cues and be cautious of further downside risk in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed event-based backtest aims to evaluate the historical performance of PERP/USDT following days when the price touches or falls below the support level of 0.1444 USDT. By identifying these event dates and analyzing the subsequent price behavior—such as 1-, 3-, 5-, 10-, and 20-day returns, maximum drawdown, and volatility—this analysis can provide insight into whether such support breaks typically precede a corrective bounce or a continuation of the bearish trend.

Using the PERP/USDT pair on Binance as the data source, the backtest would fetch daily OHLC data from 2022-01-01 to present, then apply the event definition: any day where the daily low touches or falls below 0.1444. The resulting list of event dates would be used to evaluate post-event price patterns. This approach is designed to assess the reliability of the 0.1444 support level and help inform investment decisions around potential bounces or breakdowns.