Peraso's Crossroads: mmWave Innovation at a Regulatory and Strategic Pivot Point

Peraso, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRSO) stands at a critical juncture, where regulatory shifts, strategic overtures, and operational pivots could redefine its trajectory as a player in the $42 billion BEAD (Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment) program. The company's mmWave technology—positioned to deliver fiber-like speeds at a fraction of the cost—faces both near-term catalysts and long-term risks that investors must weigh carefully. With the revised BEAD funding rules now favoring technology-neutral solutions, Peraso's ability to capitalize on this regulatory tailwind, navigate Mobix Labs' unsolicited bid, and sustain cost discipline could determine its viability as a speculative buy in the fixed wireless space.

Regulatory Tailwinds: BEAD's Shift Opens Doors for mmWave

The FCC's 2024 revisions to the BEAD program are a game-changer for Peraso. By eliminating the prior bias toward fiber infrastructure and prioritizing cost efficiency, the rules now favor technologies like Peraso's 60 GHz mmWave solutions. These systems can deliver up to 2.5 Gbps speeds at 100 ms latency—meeting the statutory thresholds—while costing significantly less than fiber in challenging terrains. The NTIA's emphasis on “Benefit of the Bargain” evaluations, requiring states to reassess subgrantees by July 6, creates urgency for Peraso to showcase its technology's cost-effectiveness.

This regulatory pivot is a near-term catalyst. States seeking to maximize BEAD funds for rural broadband now have a compelling reason to consider Peraso's offerings, especially as fiber's prohibitive costs in mountainous or remote regions become apparent. The company's defense contracts and partnerships with firms like Ubiquiti further bolster its case, as these demonstrate scalability and real-world adoption.

Strategic Crossroads: The Mobix Bid and Compliance Claims

Mobix Labs' unsolicited offer to acquire Peraso at a 20% premium has introduced strategic tension. While Mobix argues the deal would create a $20 million revenue powerhouse and address Peraso's Nasdaq compliance risks, Peraso has refuted these claims:
- Revenue Discrepancies: Mobix cited Q1 2025 mmWave revenue of $1.5 million, but Peraso reported total Q1 revenue of $3.8 million—including $1.5 million from mmWave. This suggests Mobix may have misread Peraso's segment data.
- Compliance Myth: Peraso is already compliant via Nasdaq's stockholders' equity standard ($2.5 million), not the $35 million market cap Mobix cited.

The board's evaluation of the offer is critical. Accepting Mobix's terms could lock Peraso into a combined entity with Mobix's own liquidity challenges, while rejecting it risks a contested takeover. Investors should monitor whether Peraso can secure a better deal or leverage its technology to attract a higher bidder.

Operational Pivots: Cost Discipline and Defense Diversification

Peraso's Q1 results reveal a focus on profitability. GAAP net loss narrowed to $0.5 million, while gross margins jumped to 69.3%, reflecting cost-cutting in R&D and administration. The company is deferring non-essential spending to preserve its $2.8 million cash balance, even as Q2 revenue dips temporarily due to declining memory IC sales.

The strategic win is its defense contract, which leverages mmWave's stealth capabilities for military communications. This opens a $3.4 billion addressable market (serving 3.4 million active personnel) and diversifies revenue beyond traditional telecom. Meanwhile, upgraded ProspeXus modules—supporting 48 endpoints per access point—position Peraso to capitalize on BEAD-funded fixed wireless projects.

Investment Implications: A Speculative Buy, but Risks Linger

Peraso's stock trades at $0.96, far below analyst targets of $3.28 (consensus) and GuruFocus's $1.73 valuation. The risks are clear:
- Dilution Concerns: If Peraso seeks additional funding to bolster cash reserves, equity dilution could weaken existing shareholders' stakes.
- Mobix's Uncertainty: The offer's non-binding nature and Mobix's own financial fragility add execution risk.

Yet the upside is compelling. The BEAD program's $42 billion pipeline and the FCC's push for technology-neutral solutions create a tailwind for mmWave adoption. Peraso's proven performance in defense and FWA markets, paired with its cost discipline, positions it to capture share if it secures BEAD contracts.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Bet

Peraso is at a crossroads: regulatory tailwinds, operational focus, and strategic options create a speculative opportunity for investors betting on fixed wireless's rise. The Mobix bid and BEAD deadlines are catalysts that could unlock value, but execution is key. For those willing to take on volatility, Peraso's mmWave tech—now validated by defense and rural broadband use cases—offers asymmetric upside. However, the near-term cash burn and liquidity risks demand caution. Investors should consider this a high-risk, high-reward play, suitable only for those with a long-term view on the $42 billion BEAD opportunity.

Investment recommendation: Consider a speculative position in PRSO for investors with a 3-5 year horizon, focusing on BEAD contract wins and strategic clarity post-Mobix review.