PepsiCo Surges 3.28% on Intraday Rally: What's Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• PEP trades at $149.39, up 3.28% from $144.64
• Intraday range spans $147.0 to $149.55
• Thrive Market’s shift to non-alcoholic beverages highlights sector tailwinds
• Options chain shows aggressive call buying ahead of 12/19 expiration

PepsiCo’s intraday surge reflects a confluence of sector-specific tailwinds and speculative positioning. With the non-alcoholic beverage market projected to hit $5 billion by 2028, PEP’s rally aligns with broader consumer trends. The stock’s 3.28% gain—its largest intraday move in months—has triggered a spike in call options activity, particularly around the $148–$150 strike range. Analysts are now dissecting whether this is a sector-wide shift or a PEP-specific catalyst.

Non-Alcoholic Beverage Sector Surge Drives PepsiCo's Intraday Gains
The rally is directly tied to the non-alcoholic beverage sector’s structural shift. Thrive Market’s decision to eliminate alcohol entirely and replace it with 100+ non-alcoholic products has amplified demand for PEP’s portfolio. The sector’s growth is underscored by NielsenIQ data showing adult non-alcoholic beverages will exceed $1 billion in U.S. sales by year-end. PepsiCo’s dominance in functional and premium NA beverages—such as its low-sugar, adaptogen-infused offerings—positions it to capture market share as consumers prioritize wellness and moderation. This tailwind, combined with PEP’s strong balance sheet and R&D pipeline, has ignited short-term optimism.

Coca-Cola Trails as PepsiCo Leads Non-Alcoholic Beverage Sector Rally
While PepsiCo surged 3.28%, Coca-Cola (KO) edged up just 0.007%, highlighting divergent momentum within the sector. KO’s muted performance contrasts with PEP’s aggressive positioning in NA beverages, including its recent expansion into functional drinks and partnerships with wellness-focused brands. The sector’s shift from 'abstinence' to 'intentional choice'—as noted in sector news—favors PEP’s diversified NA portfolio over KO’s traditional beverage mix. This gap underscores PEP’s leadership in capitalizing on the $5 billion NA market boom.

Options Playbook: Leveraging PEP's Volatility with Strategic Contracts
• 200-day MA: 142.28 (below current price)
• RSI: 35.07 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.066 (bearish), Signal Line: 0.183 (neutral)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $149.80 (near current price), Middle $146.66

PEP’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound after hitting oversold RSI levels. The stock is trading near its 200-day MA and upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential for a pullback or continuation. Aggressive bulls should target the $148–$150 range, where call options offer high leverage and liquidity. Two top options:

• PEP20251219C148
- Type: Call
- Strike: $148
- Expiry: 12/19
- IV: 23.08% (moderate)
- Leverage: 50.10% (high)
- Delta: 0.598 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1298 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0677 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 53,621 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $7.395 (max(0, 156.86 - 148))
- Why it stands out: High leverage and liquidity make it ideal for a bullish breakout.

• PEP20251219C149
- Type: Call
- Strike: $149
- Expiry: 12/19
- IV: 22.86% (moderate)
- Leverage: 61.95% (high)
- Delta: 0.529 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1306 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0703 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 20,320 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $7.86 (max(0, 156.86 - 149))
- Why it stands out: Strong gamma and leverage amplify gains if PEP breaks above $149.55.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider PEP20251219C148 into a bounce above $149.55.

Backtest Pepsico Stock Performance
The backtest of the Performance of the ETF PEP (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-day win rate is 49.69%, the 10-day win rate is 46.12%, and the 30-day win rate is 46.75%. However, the ETF experienced a slight decline, with a maximum return of -0.04% over the 30-day period, indicating that while there is a decent probability of positive returns in the short term, long-term performance is lackluster.

Act Now: PEP's Momentum Points to Strategic Entry for Bulls
PEP’s intraday surge is a blend of sector tailwinds and speculative positioning. With the non-alcoholic beverage market expanding and PEP’s product pipeline aligned with wellness trends, the stock’s 3.28% gain could be the start of a broader rally. However, the RSI’s oversold reading and MACD’s bearish crossover suggest caution. Investors should monitor the $146.66 (200-day MA) support and $149.80 (Bollinger upper) resistance. Coca-Cola’s flat performance (0.007% gain) highlights PEP’s sector leadership. Action: Consider PEP20251219C148 if $149.55 breaks, or short-term holds near $146.66 for a potential rebound.