PepsiCo (PEP) Options Signal Deep Bearish Sentiment: $130 Puts and Whale Trades Highlight Downside Risk Amid Activist Pressure

• PepsiCo’s current price of $140.57 reflects a 0.46% intraday gain but remains below its 30D and 200D moving averages.
• Options data reveals a put/call open interest ratio of 1.33, with $130 OTM puts dominating the short-term strike map.
• A $10.2M block trade in the PEP20251017P140 put option suggests institutional hedging or bearish positioning.
• Technical indicators (RSI at 33, bearish MACD) and Elliott’s $4B activist stake amplify near-term volatility risks.

A confluence of bearish technicals, skewed options positioning, and activist-driven uncertainty points to a high probability of PEP testing key support levels. The $130–$140 put-heavy options map and Elliott’s refranchising push create a compelling case for downside exposure, though bulls may find a short-term rebound opportunity near $139.85.

Bearish Imbalance in OTM Options and Whale Positioning

The options chain for PEP shows a stark bearish bias, with put open interest (OI) outpacing calls by 32% as of Friday’s expiration. The top OTM puts include $130 (OI: 5,148), $140 (OI: 1,035), and $138 (OI: 924), while OTM calls are concentrated at $142–$155. This distribution suggests institutional players are hedging against a potential breakdown below the 200D MA ($143.18) or capitalizing on Elliott’s activist-driven restructuring risks.

The most notable block trade—30,000 contracts in the PEP20251017P140 put option ($140 strike, expiring October 17, 2025)—adds $10.2M in liquidity to a strike just below PEP’s 200D support range (145.20–145.84). This whale activity could signal a strategic bet on a prolonged selloff if Elliott’s refranchising agenda clashes with management or if debt concerns resurface. Conversely, the $142–$145 call cluster (OI: 808–889) hints at limited upside conviction, with bulls likely eyeing a rebound to the 30D MA ($145.51) as a potential entry point.

Activist Pressure and Debt Woes Amplify Volatility

Elliott’s $4B stake and push for bottling network refranchising align with the options market’s bearish tilt. While PepsiCo’s recent sustainability partnerships and Celsius acquisition highlight growth potential, the $6B in new debt and negative free cash flow create a conflicting narrative. The put-heavy options map likely reflects investor skepticism about Elliott’s ability to unlock value without operational disruptions.

The $130 put strike, with 5,148 contracts open, could become a focal point if Elliott’s demands trigger a liquidity crunch or if the FTC’s dropped lawsuit leads to regulatory complacency. Meanwhile, the $140 put (OI: 1,035) acts as a near-term floor, coinciding with PEP’s Bollinger Band lower bound ($137.22). A break below $137.22 would invalidate the current bullish case and validate the put-heavy positioning.

Actionable Trade Setups: Puts for Downside, Calls for ReboundOptions Plays:

• Bear Put Spread (Friday Expiry): Buy PEP20251017P140 ($140 strike) and sell PEP20251017P130 ($130 strike). The $10.2M block trade in the $140 put increases liquidity, while the $130 put offers a high-probability floor. Maximum profit if PEP closes below $130 by October 17.
• Short-Term Put (Next Friday Expiry): Buy PEP20251024P137 ($137 strike, OI: 1,532) for a 7-day bearish play. The strike aligns with the lower Bollinger Band and 200D support, offering a 7.5% downside target.
• Bull Call (Rebound Play): Buy PEP20251017C145 ($145 strike, OI: 808) if PEP rebounds above $140.93 (intraday high). A close above $143.62 (middle Bollinger Band) could trigger a rally to $146.77 (30D support).

Stock Positioning:

• Short Entry: Target $139.85 (intraday low) as a key support level. If PEP breaks below $137.22 (lower Bollinger Band), consider a short at $136.50 with a stop-loss at $139.50.
• Long Entry: Buy PEP at $139.85 if it holds above $137.22. A close above $143.62 (middle Bollinger Band) could target $145.51 (30D MA) or $146.77 (30D support).

Volatility on the Horizon

The interplay between Elliott’s activist agenda and PepsiCo’s debt-laden balance sheet creates a volatile backdrop. While the put-heavy options map and bearish technicals (RSI at 33, MACD below zero) favor a near-term test of $130–$137, the $145.51–$147.02 support/resistance range could spark a rebound if management aligns with Elliott’s refranchising goals. Traders should monitor the October 17 expiration for liquidity shifts and watch for a potential short-covering rally if PEP’s Q3 2025 earnings (August 15) exceed expectations. The key takeaway: position for a $130–$140 range contraction but remain alert to breakout opportunities as the activist saga unfolds.