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Pepsi highlights consumer spending troubles; Shares hold steady
AInvestThursday, Jul 11, 2024 12:44 pm ET
2min read
PEP --

PepsiCo's (PEP) Q2 2024 financial report showcased a mixed performance, with the beverage giant managing to maintain a positive outlook amidst a backdrop of softer consumer demand and recall-related setbacks. The company reported a 0.8% increase in net revenue and a 13% jump in GAAP earnings per share, thanks to pricing strategies and cost optimization efforts.

The company posted revenues of $22.5 billion, which rose 0.8% year-over-year but fell slightly short of the consensus of $22.62 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.28, beating the consensus estimate of $2.16 by $0.12. Despite the revenue miss, the double-digit EPS beat underscores some underlying strengths in PepsiCo's operations.

One of the major takeaways from the earnings release was the decline in volumes across North America. Frito-Lay North America saw a 4% volume drop, the worst in years, while Beverages North America experienced a 3% decline. This volume contraction is attributed to changing consumer behavior, with a shift from in-home to away-from-home consumption, significantly affecting portion sizes and volumes. In contrast, prices across these segments increased by 3% and 5% year-over-year, respectively, helping to offset some of the volume declines.

Internationally, PepsiCo performed relatively well, with beverage volumes increasing in every region and a 5% rise in Convenient Foods in Europe, reversing the previous quarter's 5% decline. However, there were volume compressions in Latin America and the Asia Pacific. PepsiCo remains optimistic about Latin America and sees solid performance in Asia despite cautious consumer behavior. The company’s ability to maintain and grow its market share internationally is a positive sign amidst domestic challenges.

Consumer spending trends were a significant focus of the earnings discussion. PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta highlighted the increasing price sensitivity across all U.S. income groups, not just among low-income consumers. This sensitivity is a reaction to the persistent inflationary pressures that have stretched disposable incomes. Consumers are increasingly strategizing their spending, opting for more cost-effective dining options or choosing at-home entertainment over expensive restaurant meals.

The company's revised financial guidance for the year, with an organic revenue growth target of around 4%, reflects a realistic assessment of the current market climate. Despite the challenging economic conditions, PepsiCo reiterated its FY24 EPS outlook of at least $8.15, aligning closely with the consensus of $8.16. The company also maintained its forecast for an 8% increase in core constant currency EPS and a core annual effective tax rate of 20%. However, it revised its FY24 organic revenue growth outlook to approximately 4% year-over-year, down from the prior forecast of at least 4%. This subtle change in wording indicates that revenues could potentially fall short of the 4% target, reflecting the uncertainty in the current consumer environment.

PepsiCo’s strategy to navigate these challenges includes ongoing supply chain recovery, expected to be back to 100% by Q4, and refilling store shelves. The company is also making value adjustments in its portfolio to address pricing concerns and is investing in parts of its Frito-Lay North America business to maintain consumer interest. Cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements are also in focus to bolster margins. These efforts, combined with a resilient product portfolio, aim to position PepsiCo for growth despite the softer consumer environment domestically and abroad.

Organic revenue growth, a key indicator of underlying business health, clocked in at 1.9%, reflecting the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions. PepsiCo's focus on Core EPS, a non-GAAP measure that excludes certain one-time items, demonstrated a more robust 10% growth, indicating the company's resilience in the face of headwinds. Key areas of strength were beverages, particularly in Europe, and international markets, which helped to offset regional declines.

In the face of product recalls at Quaker Foods North America, PepsiCo demonstrated agility by adjusting pricing and cost-saving measures. CEO Ramon Laguarta highlighted the importance of maintaining price sensitivity across all income groups and emphasized the need for value adjustments in the portfolio. By focusing on margin expansion and cost optimization, PepsiCo aimed to offset volume compression and navigate the challenging consumer environment.In conclusion, while PepsiCo's Q2 2024 results were not without challenges, the company's strategic adjustments and focus on core earnings growth demonstrate its commitment to weathering the storm. By staying agile, managing costs, and investing in a future-oriented strategy, PepsiCo is poised to navigate the ever-evolving consumer landscape and emerge stronger from the current economic climate.

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