Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) Market Overview

• PEPEJPY traded in a tight range for much of the 24-hour window before declining sharply in the final hours
• Price action suggests bearish momentum, with RSI entering oversold territory toward the close
• High volume in the last 6 hours indicates a potential short-term reversal or consolidation point
• A key support level appears at 0.001015, where a bounce could indicate a temporary bottoming process
• The 15-minute MACD turned negative late in the session, confirming bearish pressure

Market Overview

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001029 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001036 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02. The pair reached a high of 0.00104 and a low of 0.001011 during the 24-hour period. The total volume traded was approximately 1,161,882,475, while the notional turnover amounted to roughly $1,192,292 based on the closing prices and volumes observed in the dataset.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed a series of bearish patterns in the latter half of the 24-hour cycle, including a key Shooting Star formation around 05:45 ET and a bearish Engulfing pattern at 08:30 ET. These formations coincided with notable volume spikes, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Key support levels have formed near 0.001015 and 0.001006, while resistance appears at 0.001028 and 0.001035. A potential pivot at 0.001031 could offer a short-term balancing point over the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price, forming a bearish “death cross” formation around 04:45 ET. This suggests a continuation of the downward trend could be in play in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits slightly above the 100- and 200-period lines, which are converging, indicating a possible longer-term consolidation phase may follow the recent sharp decline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned decisively negative after 04:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. RSI reached oversold territory near 30 at 17:00 ET, but did not generate a bullish reversal signal—suggesting a continuation of the bearish bias is likely. A rebound above the 50-level would indicate a potential short-term rally, but it may struggle to gain lasting traction without a strong volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the final hours, with price action breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at 17:00 ET. This expansion signals a breakout, with the lower band now sitting at 0.001015. Price has remained near the lower band for most of the session, with a recent pullback offering a tentative floor for near-term movement. A move above the 0.001031 midline could trigger a retest of the upper band at 0.001039.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply in the final 6 hours, particularly between 14:30 ET and 17:00 ET, as the price declined from 0.001036 to 0.001015. Notional turnover spiked during this period as well, with over $250,000 in turnover observed at the low point. The divergence between price and volume is not evident in the dataset, suggesting that the move is backed by genuine liquidity. However, a lack of follow-through volume after the 17:00 ET low may indicate a temporary pause rather than a full reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.001036 to 0.001015, the 38.2% level is at 0.001026 and the 61.8% level is at 0.001022. Price has tested the 61.8% level and bounced slightly back toward 0.001026. If the price consolidates around this level, it could set up for a potential bounce or a retest of the 38.2% level. For the daily swing, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels correspond to 0.001033 and 0.001025, respectively—both of which align with observed price behavior.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and key candlestick formations observed in this 24-hour period, a backtesting strategy could focus on shorting opportunities based on bearish candlestick patterns like the Engulfing and Shooting Star. For example, a potential rule could be to short after a confirmed bearish Engulfing pattern appears on the 15-minute chart, with an exit after 5 trading days or upon hitting a 5% stop-loss or 10% take-profit. The recent price action on PEPEJPY suggests that this approach could yield positive results, particularly if accompanied by strong volume confirmation and divergence in RSI. The hammer pattern is not relevant in this context, but a similar approach using bearish patterns could offer a robust framework for further testing.