Pepe/Yen Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Session Ends With Uncertainty

• PEPEJPY traded in a broad range, testing key resistance and support levels amid uneven momentum.
• A sharp intraday rally emerged around 03:30 ET, followed by consolidation and a decline toward the close.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought conditions early, but divergence later emerged with price weakness.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with volume spiking during the 03:30–04:30 ET breakout attempt.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 0.001561 (61.8%) and 0.001532 (38.2%) showed strong reactions.

Market Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001561 and traded between 0.001530 and 0.001580, closing at 0.001536. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 19,342,720,120.0, with a notional turnover of $13,303,647 (based on mid-candle values). The session was marked by a sharp rally and pullback, with price consolidating near key Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

The session featured multiple bullish and bearish signals. A strong reversal candle appeared at 03:30 ET, with a long upper shadow and a close near the low, hinting at rejection near 0.001569. Later, a bearish engulfing pattern at 05:15 ET confirmed a reversal in the intraday momentum. Several doji formed in the 09:00–11:45 ET range, indicating indecision and potential exhaustion in both directions.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA earlier in the session, indicating a temporary bullish bias. However, the 50-period MA began to slope downward toward the close, suggesting a bearish shift. The 200-period MA remained near 0.001550, acting as a dynamic support level that failed to hold during the 03:30 ET breakout attempt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged during the early breakout attempt, reaching a high of 0.000006 before declining sharply, forming a bearish divergence with price. RSI peaked at overbought territory (~68) around 03:45 ET but failed to hold, dropping below 50 by 08:00 ET. The combination of overbought conditions and subsequent divergence suggests a potential short-term reversal may be in the works.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 03:30–04:30 ET breakout, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly. Price pushed above the upper band to 0.001580, but failed to maintain the breakout. Subsequent pullback saw price settle just above the middle band near 0.001560. The narrowing of bands in the 11:00–12:00 ET period suggests a potential consolidation phase may follow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout attempt, with over $193 million traded in the 03:30–04:30 ET window. However, the subsequent pullback occurred on relatively lower volume, indicating weak follow-through buying. Notional turnover peaked at $1,320,000 during the 03:45 ET candle and then declined steadily. Price and turnover moved in sync during the breakout but diverged during the pullback, raising concerns about the strength of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels played a significant role in the session. The 61.8% retracement level at 0.001561 was briefly breached but failed to hold, while the 38.2% level at 0.001532 held as support during the 05:15 ET candle. The 50% retracement level at 0.001546 acted as a key pivot point in the 09:00–11:00 ET consolidation phase. These levels suggest a potential trading range may form in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on using a combination of RSI overbought conditions and bearish divergence as entry signals, with stop-loss and take-profit levels derived from Fibonacci retracements. Given the RSI divergence observed on the 03:45–04:30 ET candles, and the failure of price to hold above the 0.001561 level, this strategy could have captured the subsequent pullback with a reasonable risk-reward profile. A potential entry at 0.001561 with a stop at 0.001573 and a target at 0.001549 would align with the observed price action and Fibonacci structure, supporting the hypothesis that a breakout followed by a retest can provide a high-probability short trade.