Pepe/Tether USDt (PEPEUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-11

• PEPEUSDT closed slightly lower after a volatile 24-hour session, with a 1.053e-05 final close.
• Key support tested at 1.046e-05, with bearish pressure evident during the 19:45–20:00 ET window.
• Volume surged over 100 billion at the 12:30–12:45 ET timeframe, indicating heightened interest.
• RSI and MACD suggest weakening momentum, but no overbought or oversold conditions were observed.
• A bullish recovery attempt emerged late on 9/11, with price retesting the 1.060e-05 level.

Pepe/Tether USDt (PEPEUSDT) opened at 1.055e-05 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.068e-05, and a low of 1.032e-05, closing at 1.053e-05 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 1.14e+12, with notional turnover reaching $114 million, reflecting active trading.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias with multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow at the session close. A key support area appears to be forming between 1.046e-05 and 1.043e-05, with several candles testing this region and failing to break lower. Resistance is seen at 1.060e-05, where price repeatedly stalled in the final hours of the 24-hour period. A doji formed at the 09:45–10:00 ET window, indicating indecision and a potential reversal setup from the lower part of the range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remained above the 20-period moving average for most of the session but dipped below the 50-period line during the late-night hours. This suggests short-term bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are aligned, supporting the bearish bias, while the 200-period MA remains neutral, suggesting no strong long-term conviction in the move.

MACD & RSI

MACD displayed a bearish crossover in the early morning, followed by a weak bullish divergence in the afternoon, but the overall trend remains bearish with a negative histogram. RSI moved between 40 and 60 for most of the session, lacking clear overbought or oversold signals. However, a bearish divergence appeared as RSI peaked around 1.065e-05 while the price continued to fall, indicating potential weakness in the recovery attempt.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 12:30–12:45 ET period, with the high of 1.07e-05 surpassing the upper band. This expansion suggests increased uncertainty and potential for further consolidation. The price spent much of the session between the 1.046e-05 and 1.056e-05 range, aligning with the 1.053e-05 central band. A contraction phase is likely in the next 24 hours, especially if the current range is respected.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.14765352893e+12 at the 12:30–12:45 ET window, confirming the large move to 1.07e-05. However, this was followed by a sharp volume drop as the price declined toward 1.049e-05, indicating potential exhaustion on the upside. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the highest turnover occurring during the 12:30–12:45 ET spike. No clear divergence was observed between volume and price movement during this period, suggesting the large move had strong backing.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute swing from 1.032e-05 to 1.07e-05 saw price retest the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.055e-05 before retreating. Daily Fibonacci levels, based on the broader move from 1.036e-05 to 1.068e-05, showed a 38.2% retracement at 1.053e-05, where the price closed the session. This suggests a temporary equilibrium but does not rule out further consolidation or a breakout attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for PEPEUSDT could involve a mean-reversion setup on the 15-minute timeframe, leveraging Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracements. Traders could enter long positions near the lower band (or 38.2%–50% retracement levels) with stop-loss just below the 61.8% retracement. A short position might be initiated near the upper band or above the 61.8% retracement, with a stop-loss above the 50% level. This approach would aim to capture volatility-driven swings while respecting key support and resistance levels. Historical data from the last 24 hours suggest this setup has a high probability of success in a range-bound scenario.