PEPE's Technical Rebound and Price Target Potential: A Short-Term Momentum Play

The resurgence of Pepe (PEPE) in Q3 2025 has ignited renewed interest among both retail and institutional investors, driven by a confluence of on-chain demand signals and technical indicators pointing to short-term momentum. While the token's volatility remains a double-edged sword, the data suggests a compelling case for cautious optimism.

On-Chain Demand Resurgence: Whale Accumulation and Exchange Dynamics

The most striking on-chain development for PEPE in Q3 2025 has been the aggressive accumulation by large holders. Whale transactions surged by 6.63% in the past month, with significant positions expanding from 3.9 to 4.07 trillion tokens, according to a Levex analysis. This trend aligns with broader exchange outflows, as self-custody wallet adoption reduced exchange reserves from 45% in November 2024 to 26.6% by Q3 2025, according to CoinCentral. Such behavior-moving tokens off exchanges-typically signals long-term conviction, as it limits immediate selling pressure and enhances scarcity.

Active wallet growth further reinforces this narrative. Unique holders surpassed 463,000, with a 38.43% weekly increase in active addresses and a 39.01% rise in new wallets, according to ChainAffairs. This surge in retail participation, coupled with whale accumulation, suggests a maturing market structure for PEPE. Notably, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio for PEPE exited the negative zone, indicating a shift from undervaluation to a more balanced market position, as noted in the Levex analysis.

Technical Rebound: Momentum Indicators and Breakout Potential

From a technical perspective, PEPE's price action in Q3 2025 has shown classic bullish divergences. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilized in neutral to oversold territory, while the MACD histogram displays positive divergence, hinting at a potential reversal, according to Blockchain News. A critical catalyst for further gains would be a clean close above $0.0000135, which could trigger a move toward $0.000015, analysts at Analytics Insight say.

The token has also broken out of a descending triangle pattern, with key resistance levels at $0.0000122 and $0.0000140, according to Blockchain News. If these levels are breached, analysts project a 40–75% upside to $0.000014–$0.0000175 by the end of Q3 2025, per Analytics Insight. Derivatives data adds weight to this thesis: open interest has climbed to $559.75 million, and the long/short ratio favors long positions, as highlighted in the Levex analysis.

Price Targets and Risk Considerations

Short-term price targets for PEPE are anchored in both on-chain and technical catalysts. A $0.00001150 level is seen as a near-term support, with a 15% rally potential by September 30, 2025, according to Analytics Insight. A more ambitious $0.0000125 target-representing a 25% upside-requires a breakout above the 50 EMA at $0.00001143, as noted by CoinCentral. For medium-term holders, the $0.000014–$0.0000175 range is viewed as a realistic target, contingent on maintaining RSI above 50 and avoiding a breakdown below $0.00000980, per Blockchain News.

However, risks remain. A breakdown below critical support levels could invalidate the bullish setup, particularly if broader market conditions deteriorate. Additionally, emerging competitors like Pepeto pose a threat to PEPE's market share, a concern raised in the Levex analysis.

Conclusion: A High-Volatility, High-Reward Scenario

PEPE's Q3 2025 trajectory reflects a unique interplay of on-chain demand and technical momentum. Whale accumulation, declining exchange reserves, and robust retail adoption create a bullish foundation, while technical indicators suggest a favorable risk/reward profile for short-term traders. That said, the token's inherent volatility and competitive landscape necessitate strict risk management. For investors willing to navigate these dynamics, PEPE presents a compelling case for a speculative play on meme-coin resilience.