Is PEPE Rebuilding a Bull Case Amid Volatile Price Action?

The Pepe (PEPE) token, a quintessential meme coin, has entered a pivotal phase in its price trajectory as of November 2025. Amid a backdrop of conflicting technical patterns and divergent on-chain signals, the question of whether PEPE is laying the groundwork for a bullish resurgence remains contentious. This analysis synthesizes recent technical and on-chain data to evaluate the validity of a potential bull case, while highlighting the risks posed by persistent bearish momentum.

Technical Analysis: A Clash of Patterns

PEPE's price action has become a battleground for competing technical narratives. On the short-term chart, a falling wedge pattern has emerged, with key support levels at $0.00000455 and $0.00000470, and resistance at $0.00000520 and $0.00000550 according to technical analysis. A breakout above $0.00000490 is critical to confirm the bullish case, with potential targets extending to $0.00000520–$0.00000550. However, this optimism is tempered by a head-and-shoulders pattern, which signals a bearish reversal and projects a decline toward $0.00000185. The coexistence of these patterns underscores the coin's volatility and the need for volume confirmation to validate any breakout.

Meanwhile, PEPE is testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0000057476, a critical psychological barrier. If this level holds, the next target is $0.0000065975 according to market analysis. Yet, the RSI at 26.40 suggests the token is in deeply oversold territory, fueling short-term bullish expectations for a rebound to $0.000005 within 1–2 weeks. Analysts caution, however, that without sustained volume and trendline validation, these rebounds may lack durability according to technical reports.

On-Chain Divergence: Whales vs. Retail

On-chain metrics reveal a stark divergence in market sentiment. While futures open interest has surged past $1 billion, signaling heightened speculative activity, the broader market context shows a deleveraging phase, with open interest dropping to $194 million in 2025 amid broader crypto weakness according to market data. This duality reflects a tug-of-war between bullish retail participation and bearish institutional caution.

Whale activity further complicates the narrative. The top 100 PEPE wallets control over 70% of the circulating supply, indicating concentrated accumulation that could drive a sustained rebound. Additionally, 36 major transfers exceeding $1 million in a single day suggest institutional or large-scale investor confidence according to transaction data. Conversely, the 75% year-to-date price decline and weak on-chain liquidity highlight structural fragility, with most trading activity now concentrated in centralized perpetual futures markets.

Retail participation, however, is on the rise. New PEPE addresses have surged by 39% in a single day, and the percentage of the supply in profit has increased, signaling growing retail optimism according to recent data. This influx of new users could act as a catalyst for a short-term rally, but it also raises concerns about speculative overextension.

Market Sentiment: A Fragile Balance

The interplay between technical and on-chain data creates a fragile equilibrium. While the RSI and Stochastic indicators suggest an imminent oversold bounce according to technical analysis, bearish RSI divergence on the weekly chart warns of a potential major correction according to market reports. This duality mirrors the broader market's uncertainty, where bullish technical setups clash with bearish macro trends.

A critical juncture lies in the $0.00000490 resistance level. A successful breakout here could trigger a wave of stop-loss orders and institutional buying, propelling PEPE toward $0.00000520–$0.00000550. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.00000455 would validate the head-and-shoulders pattern, accelerating the descent toward $0.00000185. Traders must also monitor the $0.000005 Fibonacci level, which serves as both a psychological support and a potential inflection point for short-term sentiment according to market prediction.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

PEPE's technical and on-chain landscape is a mosaic of conflicting signals. The bullish case hinges on a successful breakout above $0.00000490, supported by rising retail participation and whale accumulation. However, the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and weak on-chain liquidity present significant risks.

For investors, the path forward requires vigilance. A short-term rebound to $0.000005 is plausible, but a deeper correction to $0.000003 remains a tail risk if bearish momentum intensifies according to market analysis. Position sizing and stop-loss placement near key support levels will be critical. In the long term, PEPE's ability to sustain a bullish narrative will depend on broader market conditions and the token's capacity to attract sustained institutional interest.

As always, the volatile nature of meme coins demands caution. While the technical setup offers tantalizing possibilities, the on-chain data serves as a sobering reminder of the market's inherent unpredictability.