Is Pepe (PEPE) Poised for a Breakout? Technical and On-Chain Signals Point to High-Probability Bullish Reversal

The meme coin sector has long been a volatile playground for retail investors, but Pepe (PEPE) is emerging as a standout contender in 2025. Recent technical and on-chain data suggest a compelling case for a bullish reversal, driven by structural price action, whale accumulation, and macro-level crypto market dynamics. Let’s dissect the evidence.

Technical Analysis: A Textbook Impulse Wave in Motion

PEPE’s price trajectory has followed a textbook Elliott Wave structure, completing a complex WXYXZ corrective phase and transitioning into a new impulsive wave. Since its wave 4 low on May 6, the token has surged 22.4%, nearing the critical 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0000108—a key resistance for confirming the continuation of the bullish trend [4].

In early September, PEPE broke above the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.00000969 and the Fibonacci level of $0.00000993, triggering algorithmic buying and short-covering [2]. A breakout on August 17 pushed the price to $0.00001120, accompanied by a 123.5% surge in trading volume, signaling strong institutional participation [2]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 60 on lower timeframes, indicating sustained bullish momentum [4].

A falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart further reinforces the case for a rally. Such patterns often resolve with a sharp upward thrust, and PEPE’s wedge has a measured move target of $0.000012, with optimistic scenarios projecting $0.000015 [3].

On-Chain Signals: Whales Accumulate, Exchange Balances Wane

On-chain metrics paint a picture of growing confidence among large holders. Wallets holding 10–100 trillion PEPE increased their holdings by 24 trillion tokens (20%) since January 2025, while a single whale withdrew 500 billion PEPE (~$4.36 million) from Binance in a single transaction [2]. This shift from weak hands to strong hands suggests smart money is positioning for a rebound.

Exchange balances for PEPE have also declined, indicating reduced sell-side pressure. As of September 2025, large holders account for over 60% of the token’s circulating supply, a distribution pattern typically associated with long-term bullish setups [2]. Additionally, burn rates and wallet distribution data highlight ongoing interest, with community engagement and social media activity correlating to volume spikes on major exchanges [1].

Price Projections: A Tale of Two Scenarios

While the technical and on-chain signals are overwhelmingly bullish, price forecasts remain contingent on broader market conditions. In a bullish scenario where the crypto market cap reaches $3 trillion, PEPE could trade near $0.00000913 by year-end. A more aggressive $10 trillion market cap scenario projects a price of $0.0000304 [1].

Conversely, a bearish scenario could see PEPE dip to $0.00000456 in the short term, though this would require a sustained market downturn and a failure to hold key support levels. Long-term forecasts vary widely, with some analysts predicting $0.0000540–$0.0000630 by 2030, while others cap it at $0.0000037–$0.0000073 by late 2025 [1].

The Bigger Picture: Meme Coins and Institutional Legitimacy

PEPE’s trajectory is also influenced by the broader legitimization of meme coins. Institutional interest has surged, with potential ETF approvals adding a layer of credibility to the asset class [1]. Ethereum’s price action remains a critical factor, as PEPE’s performance is closely tied to ETH’s dominance in the market.

Conclusion: A High-Probability Setup for a Breakout

The convergence of technical, on-chain, and macro-level signals creates a high-probability scenario for PEPE’s breakout. A clean five-wave structure, whale accumulation, and declining exchange balances all point to a token primed for a rally. While risks remain—particularly in a bearish market—current momentum favors a move toward $0.000012 and beyond. For investors, the key will be monitoring Ethereum’s price and PEPE’s ability to hold above $0.0000108 in the coming weeks.

Source:
[1] Pepe Coin Price Prediction 2025, 2030 - Forecast Analysis [https://www.tokenmetrics.com/blog/pepe-coin-price-prediction?74e29fd5_page=29]
[2] Pepecoin (PEPE/USDT) Technical Analysis June 2025 [https://phemex.com/blogs/pepecoin-price-prediction-and-technical-analysis-for-may-2025]
[3] 3 Memecoins to Watch in September 2025 and Why [https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/memecoins-to-watch-in-september-2025/]
[4] PEPE Jumps 22% During Market Recovery as Bulls Target ... [https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/pepe-spikes-upside-potential-ahead/]