PEPE's Emerging Bullish Catalysts: Can Derivatives and On-Chain Data Signal a Major Rally Above $0.000006?

The memecoin sector has long been a battleground of hype and volatility, but Pepecoin (PEPE) is emerging as a standout contender in 2025. With on-chain metrics painting a picture of explosive growth and derivatives data hinting at speculative fervor, the question looms: Can PEPE break above $0.000006 and sustain a rally? Let's dissect the technical and on-chain signals to determine whether this meme token is poised for a breakout or a breakdown.

On-Chain Momentum: A Surge in Participation

PEPE's on-chain activity in late 2025 reveals a surge in user adoption and capital inflows. According to Santiment, new addresses conducting their first PEPE transactions spiked by 39% in 24 hours, rising from 448 to 623. This surge in network growth is a critical indicator of grassroots adoption, suggesting that retail and institutional investors alike are allocating capital to the token.

Active address counts have also hit record highs, surpassing 20,500 in a single week. This metric, often used to gauge network health, reflects heightened engagement and transactional activity. Notably, the percentage of PEPE's supply in profit increased from 20.14% to 23.20% within a day, signaling a shift in market sentiment toward optimism. Whale activity further reinforces this narrative: 36 large-scale transactions exceeding $1 million were executed by institutional players, directly correlating with price movements.

Derivatives Market: A Mixed Bag of Signals

While on-chain data is bullish, the derivatives market tells a more nuanced story. Funding rates for PEPE futures have turned negative at -0.0168%, indicating bearish sentiment and a dominance of short positions. Open interest has also declined by 8% over 24 hours, reflecting a capital outflow and reduced speculative fervor.

However, the long/short ratio of 0.8975 suggests an imbalance in derivatives positioning, with 50.3% of futures positions being short. This creates a potential catalyst for a short squeeze if bullish momentum gains traction. The key question is whether on-chain inflows will overpower derivatives bearishness.

Technical Analysis: A Path to $0.000006 and Beyond

From a technical perspective, PEPE is in a critical juncture. The 14-day RSI sits at 40.86, indicating a neutral zone with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. Immediate support levels are clustered between $0.0000070 and $0.0000075, while the $0.000010 mark represents a key psychological resistance level. Breaking above this threshold could trigger a rally toward $0.000012 and $0.000014.

Volume profiles add another layer of insight. While 24-hour trading volume has dipped to $364 million from $1 billion in mid-2025, whale accumulation on dips suggests confidence in the token's long-term potential. The MACD remains above zero, signaling positive momentum, and the Fear & Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear) underscores a contrarian buying opportunity.

The Bull Case: On-Chain vs. Derivatives

The interplay between on-chain and derivatives data is pivotal. On-chain metrics-address growth, whale activity, and profit percentages-indicate a strong foundation for a rally. However, derivatives data highlights short-term bearishness, particularly in funding rates and open interest. The critical test will be whether PEPE can sustain a break above $0.000010, which would validate the bullish thesis and trigger a cascade of short-covering.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Play

PEPE's trajectory above $0.000006 hinges on two factors: sustained on-chain inflows and a shift in derivatives sentiment. While the token's fundamentals are robust, the derivatives market remains a wildcard. Investors should monitor whale activity and open interest trends for confirmation of a breakout. For now, PEPE remains a high-risk, high-reward play, but the confluence of on-chain momentum and technical indicators suggests that the path of least resistance may soon tilt upward.