PEPE's Elliott Wave Momentum and Short-Term Breakout Potential: A Technical and Sentiment-Driven Case for 50–80% Upside

The PEPE token, a memecoin that has oscillated between speculative frenzy and technical correction, is currently at a critical juncture. As of December 2025, its price trajectory reflects a complex interplay of bearish consolidation and emerging bullish catalysts. This analysis synthesizes technical indicators, market sentiment, and on-chain activity to evaluate whether PEPE's short-term trajectory supports a 50–80% upside-despite recent volatility.

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals and Elliott Wave Implications

PEPE's price action in late December 2025 was marked by bearish momentum, with analysts projecting a 23.59% decline to $0.00003136 by December 26, 2025. However, recent data suggests a potential shift. The RSI (59.77) has stabilized in neutral territory, while the MACD histogram's bearish momentum has plateaued, hinting at a possible consolidation phase. On the 4-hour chart, the KDJ indicator's retreat from overbought levels and a golden cross in the 5MA/10MA crossover signal short-term rebounds.

Elliott Wave traders may find intrigue in the capital outflow of -$47 million over the past week, including -$12 million on January 8, 2026. This outflow aligns with a potential corrective wave (likely a 3-wave structure) if the price breaks below the $0.0000279 support zone. A breakdown here could trigger a rally as part of a larger bullish impulse wave, targeting the $0.00000585 Fibonacci 38.2% level. Crucially, the EMA10/EMA20 death cross and the long-to-short ratio (3:1) suggest downward pressure remains, but the recent negative funding rate (-0.0024%) indicates short-term bearish sentiment may already be priced in.

Market Sentiment: Whale Activity and Leveraged Bullishness

While technicals remain mixed, market sentiment has turned decisively bullish. Santiment data reveals a 630% spike in whale activity, with PEPE ranking second among large-cap assets for large transactions. This surge correlates with a 61% price increase over seven days and a futures open interest surge to $470 million, reflecting leveraged long positions.

On-chain metrics further validate this optimism. The 4-hour KDJ golden cross and MACD crossover suggest a breakout above key resistance at $0.0000444 is imminent. Traders are now targeting the $0.000010 level, a 50–80% upside from the December 2025 support zone of $0.0000279. However, caution is warranted: the RSI's overbought reading (74) and a head-and-shoulders pattern imply a pullback to $0.0000037 could materialize if momentum stalls.

Risk Mitigation and Strategic Entry Points

The path to a 50–80% upside hinges on three factors:
1. Breakout Confirmation: A sustained close above $0.0000444 would validate the bullish case, with the $0.000010 target requiring a 227% move from the December 2025 low.
2. Whale Continuity: Sustained large transactions (currently at 630% above average) would signal institutional accumulation, reinforcing the Elliott Wave impulse.
3. Funding Rate Reversal: A positive funding rate (>0.0024%) would indicate short-covering and reduce bearish pressure.

Conversely, a breakdown below $0.0000279 could trigger a 23.59% decline to $0.00003136, though this scenario assumes a lack of further whale-driven inflows.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Volatility Trade

PEPE's technical and sentiment profile presents a compelling case for a short-term 50–80% upside, contingent on breakout confirmation and sustained whale activity. While bearish indicators like the EMA death cross and overbought RSI persist, the alignment of on-chain metrics, leveraged interest, and Elliott Wave patterns suggests a high-probability trade for risk-tolerant investors. Positioning near the $0.0000279 support zone, with tight stop-losses below $0.000024, could capitalize on a potential wave-three impulse if the price retests key resistance.