PEPE's Critical Technical Breakdown and Contradictory On-Chain Flows: Assessing Bearish Continuation Risk Versus Hidden Accumulation Potential in Volatile Meme Coin Markets

The meme coin sector remains one of the most unpredictable and emotionally charged corners of the cryptocurrency market. Pepe (PEPE), a token that has captured the imagination of retail investors, now finds itself at a crossroads. While technical indicators paint a bearish picture for the near term, subtle on-chain signals hint at a potential shift in sentiment. This analysis unpacks the conflicting narratives shaping PEPE's trajectory in 2025, offering a framework for investors to navigate the volatility.

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Overhang

The technical landscape for PEPE is dominated by bearish momentum. Short-term moving averages, including the 8 SMA and 13 SMA, have declined by 0.47% and 0.71%, respectively, signaling weakening upward pressure. Meanwhile, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs are projected to fall to $0.000005414 and $0.000005727 by January 2026, reinforcing a long-term downtrend. These metrics align with TradingView's "sell" recommendation for both one-week and one-month timeframes.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds nuance. While the 14-day RSI sits at 55-a neutral reading-the hourly RSI of 35 suggests PEPE is nearing oversold territory, which could trigger a short-term rebound. However, this rebound is unlikely to reverse the broader bearish trend without a catalyst. Volume data further complicates the picture: 24-hour trading volume of $317.08 million (15.99% of circulating supply) reflects moderate activity but lacks the surge typically seen in trend reversals.

On-Chain Flows: A Glimpse of Accumulation

Despite the bearish technical backdrop, on-chain data reveals a quieter story of accumulation. Reports from June 2025 highlight increased activity among large holders, with significant token accumulations suggesting strategic buying. While platforms like Glassnode or Santiment failed to provide granular metrics, industry analyses underscore that such movements are often precursors to bullish reversals in meme coins.

This accumulation is particularly noteworthy given PEPE's lack of fundamental value. In speculative markets, large holder behavior often acts as a proxy for sentiment. If whales are accumulating during a downtrend, it could indicate they perceive undervaluation-or are positioning for a future rally. However, the absence of detailed on-chain metrics (e.g., wallet concentration, transfer volumes) limits the confidence in this narrative.

The Contradiction: Bearish Momentum vs. Hidden Optimism

The tension between technical indicators and on-chain flows creates a paradox. On one hand, PEPE's price action and moving averages suggest a continuation of the bearish trend, with key support levels likely to face pressure. On the other, the accumulation by large holders implies a belief in PEPE's utility as a speculative asset, even if it lacks intrinsic value.

This duality is emblematic of meme coins: their value is driven by sentiment, not fundamentals. For investors, the challenge lies in reconciling these signals. A short-term rebound (driven by oversold RSI levels) could be exploited by traders, while long-term holders might monitor accumulation patterns for signs of a broader bottom.

Conclusion: Navigating the Volatility

PEPE's 2025 trajectory hinges on two critical factors: the persistence of bearish technical momentum and the validation of on-chain accumulation. For now, the technical case for selling remains intact, with SMAs and RSI trends favoring caution. However, the whispers of accumulation among large holders cannot be ignored.

Investors should adopt a dual strategy. In the short term, use oversold RSI levels as potential entry points for tactical trades, but set strict stop-losses given the asset's volatility. In the long term, monitor on-chain activity for confirmation of sustained accumulation. If large holders continue to buy during dips, PEPE could transition from a speculative meme coin to a more structured narrative-though this remains a high-risk bet.

As with all meme coins, PEPE's future is as much about psychology as it is about data. In a market where sentiment can shift overnight, the ability to balance technical rigor with on-chain intuition will separate the winners from the casualties.