Pepe Coin (PEPE): A High-Probability Bullish Reversal at Critical Support Confluence

Pepe Coin (PEPE) has entered a pivotal phase in its price trajectory, with technical and on-chain signals converging to form a high-probability bullish reversal setup. After a prolonged bearish correction that saw the price fall below $0.0000098 and breach key support levels [1], the market is now testing a critical confluence of Fibonacci retracement, value area lows, and harmonic patterns. Analysts project an 87% upside if this support cluster holds, driven by whale accumulation, derivatives positioning, and fractal price behavior [1].

Technical Confluence: Gartley Pattern and Fibonacci Levels

The most compelling case for a reversal lies in the formation of a Gartley harmonic pattern at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.0000122). This level acts as a confluence point for the value area low, point of control, and a historical support zone [1]. A successful completion of the Gartley’s CD leg would validate a bullish breakout, with price targets extending to $0.00002273—a 87% surge from current levels [1].

The symmetrical triangle pattern on the 8-month chart further reinforces this scenario. Historically, such patterns have led to 773% rallies upon breakout, mirroring fractal behavior seen in 2023 [4]. While the RSI and MACD currently show bearish momentum, the stochastic indicators are in oversold territory, suggesting exhaustion in the downtrend [6]. A break above $0.00001265 would trigger a wave of long positions, aligning with Wave 5 in the Elliott Wave structure [3].

On-Chain Signals: Whale Accumulation and Derivatives Positioning

On-chain data reveals a surge in whale activity, with large holders accumulating over 172 trillion tokens since January 2025 [1]. Notably, a $19 million outflow from exchanges in early September 2025 signals reduced liquidity and strategic accumulation [2]. This aligns with institutional buying behavior, as top 100 wallets increased stakes by 1.5% while exchange-held supply dropped by 2.9% [1].

Derivatives markets add nuance. Open interest in PEPE futures has surged to $636 million, reflecting bullish positioning, though short-term bearish pressure persists in negative funding rates (-0.0168%) [1]. The long/short ratio of 0.8975 indicates overextended short positions, increasing the risk of liquidations if the price breaks above $0.00001090 [1].

Market Sentiment and Contrarian Setup

Despite 77% of traders adopting a bearish stance [7], institutional optimism contrasts with retail pessimism—a classic contrarian setup. Ethereum’s recent record highs ($4,950) and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations further tilt the odds in favor of altcoins like PEPE, which has a low entry price and massive supply [5]. Whale-driven infrastructure developments, such as an Ethereum-compatible L2 blockchain by Little Pepe and NFT utility partnerships, also add speculative appeal [5].

Risks and Key Levels to Watch

The success of this bullish scenario hinges on PEPE sustaining above $0.0000122. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the Gartley pattern and expose the price to deeper corrections toward $0.000008–$0.000009 [1]. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above $0.00001327 could trigger a multiwave rally, with targets at $0.000015–$0.000019 by September 2025 [4].

Conclusion

Pepe Coin’s confluence of technical, on-chain, and derivatives signals presents a compelling case for a 87% price surge. While bearish momentum indicators like the MACD histogram remain cautionary [6], the alignment of Fibonacci levels, whale accumulation, and harmonic patterns suggests a high-probability reversal. Investors should monitor $0.0000122 as the critical inflection point, with the potential for a sustained uptrend if this support holds.

**Source:[1] Pepe (PEPE) and the Bullish Gartley Harmonic Setup [https://www.ainvest.com/news/pepe-pepe-bullish-gartley-harmonic-setup-confluence-technical-derivatives-signals-potential-87-surge-2508/][2] PEPE Price Prediction: $19M Outflows Signal 130% Rally [https://coingape.com/markets/pepe-price-forecast-as-19m-net-outflows-signal-accumulation-is-a-130-rally-next/][3] PEPE Approaches Key Resistance Level — Breakout Likely [https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/pepe-resistance-breakout-expected/][4] Ethereum News Today: Pepe Price Prediction: 773% Rally ... [https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-news-today-pepe-price-prediction-773-rally-symmetrical-triangle-breakout-2508/][5] PEPE Coin: Is Whale Accumulation a Pre-September Rally Setup? [https://www.ainvest.com/news/pepe-coin-whale-accumulation-pre-september-rally-setup-2508/][6] PEPE Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000013-$0.000019 Range by September 2025 Amid Mixed Technical Signals [https://blockchain.news/news/20250829-price-prediction-pepe-targeting-0000013-0000019-range-by-september][7] PEPE Price Prediction: Targeting $0.000013-$0.000019 Range by September 2025 Amid Mixed Technical Signals [https://blockchain.news/news/20250829-price-prediction-pepe-targeting-0000013-0000019-range-by-september]