PEPE's Bearish Head-and-Shoulders Pattern: Is the $0.00000185 Target Imminent?

The meme coin market, long a playground for volatility and speculative fervor, has turned its attention to PEPE as a textbook bearish head-and-shoulders pattern emerges. With the token's price hovering near $0.00000558 as of November 2025, traders are scrutinizing whether the $0.00000185 target-a 73% drop from current levels-is on the horizon. This analysis synthesizes technical and on-chain signals to evaluate the short-term bearish case for PEPE, while acknowledging the risks of false breakouts in a market prone to irrationality.

Technical Analysis: A Classic Bearish Reversal

The head-and-shoulders pattern, a staple of technical analysis, has taken shape across PEPE's price action. The left shoulder formed in mid-August 2024, the head in late November 2024, and the right shoulder in recent weeks. Crucially, the neckline-a critical support level at $0.0000065-has been breached, confirming the pattern's bearish implications, according to a Cryptonewsland report. Analysts like Ali (@ali_charts) project a measured move of 73% from the head to the neckline, aligning with the $0.00000185 target, as noted in that report.

Fibonacci retracement levels further reinforce this outlook. The 0.786 level at $0.00000675 has already been breached, with the next key support at $0.00000521. A 1.618 extension of the pattern's structure directly maps to $0.00000185, as the Cryptonewsland report details. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 30, signaling near-oversold territory but failing to trigger a reversal, according to a Cryptopotato analysis. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains neutral, while 85% of technical indicators-including the 50-day and 200-day SMAs-suggest downward pressure, as the CoinCodex price prediction page notes.

On-Chain Signals: Mixed but Leaning Bearish

On-chain data offers a nuanced picture. A significant withdrawal of 281 billion PEPE tokens (~$2.03M) from Binance by wallet 0xdd2 on October 30, 2025, has raised eyebrows, according to a Coinotag report. While this could signal liquidity reallocation or wallet consolidation, it also reflects a lack of confidence in near-term price stability. Additionally, whale activity has surged, with average order sizes rising by 0.12% since mid-October, according to the Coinotag report. However, this accumulation could be a prelude to a rebound, as seen in 2023 when PEPE staged a 100% rally after a similar dip, as a Financefeeds article notes.

Transaction volume has increased by 60% despite a 1.43% price drop, suggesting growing market interest, as the Coinotag report reports. Yet, daily trading volume has collapsed by over 50% to $310 million, a bearish sign of waning liquidity, as noted in the Cryptopotato analysis. The key resistance level at $0.0000065 remains untested, and a failure to reclaim it could accelerate the descent toward $0.00000185, as the Cryptopotato analysis also observes.

The Bearish Case: Structural Weakness and Market Sentiment

The broader market context is equally bearish. PEPE continues to trade below its 9-day EMA, a critical short-term trend indicator, as the Cryptopotato analysis notes. The 14-day RSI at 41.24 indicates neutrality, but the overwhelming majority of technical indicators-particularly the 200-day SMA projected to drop to $0.000008464 by December 2025-suggest further downside, as the CoinCodex prediction page notes.

Institutional skepticism compounds these technical pressures. Projects like DeepSnitch AI, which track whale activity and sentiment, have gained traction as traders seek tools to navigate PEPE's volatility. While some analysts argue that the current dip mirrors pre-2023 rally patterns, the absence of a clear reversal in RSI or MACD weakens this narrative, as the Financefeeds article observes.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

For short-term traders, PEPE presents a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern and Fibonacci projections strongly favor a move toward $0.00000185, but the market's penchant for false breakouts cannot be ignored. On-chain signals, while mixed, lean bearish, with whale accumulation and declining liquidity amplifying downside risks.

Investors should monitor the $0.0000065 level as a critical inflection point. A sustained break below this threshold would validate the bearish case, while a rebound above it could trigger a short-term bounce. Given the volatile nature of meme coins, strict risk management and real-time on-chain monitoring are essential.