Is PEPE Approaching a Bottom in a Deepening Meme Coin Downtrend?

The meme coin sector has long been a volatile playground for retail investors, and PEPE (PEPE) is no exception. As of November 2025, the token is trading near $0.000004840, a price level that sits at the crossroads of critical technical and on-chain signals. The question on many investors' minds is whether PEPE is nearing a bottom in a deepening downtrend or if further capitulation is on the horizon. To answer this, we must dissect the interplay of technical indicators, liquidity dynamics, and whale behavior.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Bias with Flickers of Hope

PEPE's technical indicators paint a mixed but cautiously bearish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into oversold territory, hovering around 31–35, a level that often precedes short-term rebounds. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish, with a red histogram dominating and the signal line above the MACD line. This suggests that while oversold conditions may trigger a bounce, the broader momentum remains tilted downward.

Support and resistance levels are critical for PEPE's near-term trajectory. The token is currently consolidating within a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart, with immediate resistance at $0.00000490 and support levels at $0.00000455–$0.00000470. A breakout above $0.00000490 could target $0.00000520–$0.00000550, but this would require above-average volume and a close above the upper trendline to confirm bullish momentum. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.00000455 could reignite the downtrend toward $0.00000178, a level last seen in mid-2025.

According to technical analysis, a notable positive sign is the bullish divergence forming near the $0.000005 support level. Rising buy volume on Binance and a 1% increase in holdings by the top 100 Ethereum addresses suggest that large players are accumulating dips. This aligns with historical patterns where whale accumulation often precedes a rebound in meme coins. However, analysts caution that these signals must be validated by a sustained close above key resistance levels.

On-Chain Metrics: Liquidity and Whale Activity in Conflict

On-chain data reveals a tug-of-war between bearish and bullish forces. While PEPE's liquidity remains robust-nearly $1 billion in derivatives and spot volume has flowed into the token in November-this has not translated into a clear directional move. Instead, the market is caught in a tight range, with exchange inflows spiking as a potential red flag.

Whale activity is equally contradictory. In October 2025, trading volume surged 72% above the daily average, reaching 2.70 trillion tokens, a sign of active position management by large holders. By November, the top 100 Ethereum addresses had increased their PEPE holdings by 1%, reinforcing the idea that whales are preparing for a potential rebound. Yet, this optimism is tempered by the fact that some whales have liquidated large positions, contributing to price corrections.

According to market data, Bitcoin whale inflows hit multi-year highs in November 2025, a trend often associated with market stabilization. While this data pertains to Bitcoin, it underscores a broader pattern of institutional positioning that could indirectly benefit PEPE. However, the Fear & Greed Index remains at 28, indicating pervasive caution among investors.

Market Sentiment and the Path Forward

The key to PEPE's near-term outlook lies in its ability to hold critical support levels. A successful defense of $0.00000550–$0.00000575 could trigger a short-term rally toward $0.00000620–$0.00000685, but this would require a coordinated effort from both retail and institutional buyers. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.00000455 could accelerate the decline toward $0.00000178, a level that would test the token's fundamental utility and community resilience.

Whale behavior will also be pivotal. If the top 100 Ethereum addresses continue to accumulate, it could signal a bottoming process. However, a shift toward selling pressure-particularly if accompanied by a surge in exchange inflows-would likely deepen the bearish narrative.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

PEPE is at a critical juncture. While technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a bearish bias, flickers of bullish divergence and whale accumulation hint at a potential bottom. The coming weeks will be defined by the token's ability to break out of its tight trading range and validate its support levels. For now, investors must remain cautious, balancing the hope of a rebound with the risk of further capitulation in a market that remains deeply uncertain.