PEPE's 21% Plunge: A Whale-Driven Correction or a Buying Opportunity?

In October 2025, the meme token PEPE experienced a dramatic 21% price plunge, sparking debates over whether this was a whale-driven correction or a buying opportunity for retail investors. To answer this, we analyze on-chain behavior, whale activity, and market sentiment, drawing from recent data and expert insights.

Whale Activity: Accumulation or Exit?

On-chain data reveals a paradox. While large investors (whales) have historically accumulated PEPE, recent transactions suggest mixed signals. For instance, the top 100 non-exchange Ethereum addresses increased holdings by 3.4% in 30 days, and a single whale spent $5 million in USDT to purchase 600.88 billion PEPE tokens, according to a Coindesk report. However, post-21% drop, massive sell-offs emerged. Arthur Hayes' $13 million offload and the withdrawal of 280 billion PEPE ($5 million) from Binance signaled bearish sentiment, as noted in a Coingape article.

Notably, whale behavior is split. Some, like "0xb1a," attempted to accumulate 200.4 billion PEPE with 3.72 million USDC, while others liquidated holdings-this duality reflects uncertainty, per an Ambcrypto analysis.

Market Sentiment: Bearish Technicals vs. Resilient Retail

Technical indicators paint a bearish picture. PEPE's price fell below key moving averages (50-day at $0.00000874, 200-day at $0.00001033), forming a descending triangle pattern, according to a 24Crypto analysis. The RSI (47.45) and Chaikin Money Flow (modest selling pressure) suggest further downside risk, as noted in that 24Crypto analysis. However, retail participation tells a different story. The number of PEPE holders rose from 207,000 to 211,000 in one week, indicating retail buyers absorbing whale sell-offs, per a Coin Republic piece.

Social media sentiment remains a wildcard. Despite the drop, PEPE retained 21.3K monthly posts and 3.63M interactions, driven by meme culture and influencer campaigns, according to a Levex blog post. The Fear & Greed Index (49) and neutral BoP (-0.54) suggest cautious optimism, with retail investors viewing the dip as a potential entry point, per a Coingape prediction.

On-Chain Metrics: Accumulation at Lower Levels

Post-dip, on-chain activity hints at stabilization. Whale accumulation in the $0.000011–$0.000012 range and a 4% decline in exchange-held PEPE (now 26.6% of total supply) signal reduced short-term selling pressure, according to an OKX analysis. Additionally, net exchange outflows of 3.43 billion PEPE suggest retail accumulation at lower prices, per a BTCC report.

Yet, risks persist. Open interest (OI) dropped 5.8% in 24 hours, and derivatives data showed $326,000 in long liquidations versus $9,900 in short liquidations, underscoring bearish dominance, according to a Coindesk analysis.

Is This a Buying Opportunity?

The answer hinges on balancing whale behavior and retail resilience. While whale selling triggered the correction, accumulation at lower levels and growing retail participation could stabilize PEPE. Key factors to watch:
1. Support Levels: A break below $0.0000091 could trigger a 15–20% decline, per that 24Crypto analysis.
2. Whale Intent: Sustained accumulation in the $0.000011–$0.000012 range may signal a bottom.
3. Retail Momentum: Continued holder growth and social media buzz could drive a rebound.

Conclusion

PEPE's 21% drop reflects whale-driven profit-taking and bearish technicals, but resilient retail demand and strategic whale accumulation at lower levels suggest a potential buying opportunity. Investors should monitor on-chain inflows, social sentiment, and key support levels before committing. As with all meme coins, PEPE's future remains tied to speculative sentiment and macro trends-factors that could swing the pendulum either way.