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Options data tells a story of conflicting narratives. This Friday’s expiring calls see the highest open interest at $150 (3,026 contracts), $155 (5,133), and $160 (3,132), suggesting retail and institutional players are pricing in a potential $152.36 breakout. The bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart—where a large red candle swallowed a smaller green one—typically signals a reversal, but the long-term bullish moving averages (30D: $146.57, 200D: $142.19) still support a higher bias.
On the flip side, a massive block trade—PEP20251017P140—sold 30,000 puts at $140 with $10.2M turnover. This isn’t just noise: big players are betting PEP won’t fall below $140, reinforcing the idea that $143.85 (lower Bollinger Band) is a critical support. The put/call ratio of 0.67 (calls > puts) also tilts the odds toward a bullish outcome, but don’t ignore the bearish engulfing pattern—it could trigger a pullback to $145.44 if not resolved.
News Flow: Analyst Hype vs. Regulatory HeadwindsAnalysts are all over the place. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan’s Buy ratings with $159.69–$164 targets align with the call-heavy options data. Citigroup’s $170 price target even adds fuel to the bullish fire. But here’s the catch: the FTC’s pricing investigation and recent executive reshuffles introduce uncertainty. While PEP’s dividend aristocrat status and $2.6B net profit are positives, regulatory risks could cap short-term gains. Think of it like a storm on the horizon—investors are betting on sunny skies, but they’re also buying umbrellas just in case.
Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for InsuranceFor options traders, the call (this Friday’s exp) is a high-conviction play. If PEP breaks above $152.36, this strike could see rapid premium growth. For a longer-term angle, the (next Friday’s exp) offers leverage if the $155 level holds. On the downside, the put (3,374 OI) acts as a hedge—buy it if PEP dips below $149.50 to lock in a floor.
Stock traders should consider entries near $149.50 (intraday low) with a target at $152.36. A stop-loss below $145.44 would protect against the bearish engulfing pattern’s bearish signal. If PEP closes above $151.24 (intraday high) by Friday, it could invalidate the bearish pattern and validate the call-heavy bets.
Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Regulatory RisksThe next 48 hours will be critical. A close above $152.36 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $145.44 could trigger a test of the $143.85 Bollinger Band. The block trade at $140 suggests dark money is ready to step in, but don’t be surprised if the FTC news resurfaces to create noise. For now, the data leans bullish—but keep your seatbelt fastened. The road ahead is paved with both growth catalysts and regulatory potholes.

Focus on daily option trades

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