PEP Options Signal Bullish Bias at $148–$155 Strikes: A Breakout Play Amid Restructuring Uncertainty

• Options market shows heavy call open interest at $148–$155 strikes, with 2,317 contracts at $148 (this Friday’s expiry).
• Put/call ratio for open interest is 0.61, favoring bullish positioning despite short-term bearish technicals.
• Recent block trade of 30,000 PEP20251017P140 puts suggests institutional confidence in downside protection.

Here’s the takeaway: PEP is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish momentum and long-term restructuring optimism. The options data leans bullish at key strike levels, but technical indicators warn of near-term volatility. Let’s break it down.

Where Institutional Money Is Flowing: Calls at $148–$155, Puts at $142–$143

The options chain tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expiry, 2,317 call contracts are open at the $148 strike—the most of any out-of-the-money (OTM) call. That’s not random. It suggests traders are pricing in a potential breakout above current levels, possibly driven by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs’ recent upgrades. But don’t ignore the puts: 4,157 puts at $142 (this Friday) and a block trade of 30,000 PEP20251017P140 puts (expiring Oct 17) show big players are hedging against a drop below $140. The risk? If earnings miss expectations or cost-cutting measures disrupt sales, the $142–$143 support zone could crumble.

News Flow: Restructuring Pain vs. Analyst Optimism

PepsiCo’s product-line cuts and layoffs are real short-term headwinds. Cutting 20% of its offerings and raising prices sounds like a recipe for customer churn. But here’s the twist: Analysts love it. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs see these moves as a “cleansing the portfolio” moment—painful now, but profitable later. The recent Doritos-F1 sponsorship and $167 price targets from Goldman add fuel to the bullish fire. The question is whether retail investors will panic-sell during the restructuring or ride the long-term efficiency gains.

Actionable Trades: Calls at $148, Puts at $142, and a Core Position at $144.88

For options traders:

• Buy PEP20260102C148 (next Friday expiry) if PEP breaks above $145. The $148 strike is a sweet spot—high enough to avoid near-term volatility, low enough to profit from the $167 price targets.
• Buy PEP20251226P142 (this Friday expiry) as insurance if the stock gaps down pre-earnings. The block trade at $140 adds a psychological floor.

For stock players:

• Enter long near $144.88 (30D support) if the price holds above $142.95. Target $148.57 (200D resistance) or the upper Bollinger Band at $152.29.
• Exit below $142.95 to avoid a breakdown into the $140–$135 range.

Volatility on the Horizon: A 2026 Payoff Play?

The data paints a mixed picture. Short-term technicals (RSI at 39, bearish MACD) hint at a possible rebound from current levels, but the long-term moving averages (30D at $147.41) suggest a rangebound battle. With 2025 labeled a “rebuilding year” and 2026 the payoff window, the options market is pricing in a late-2025/early-2026 catalyst. If you’re bullish on the restructuring narrative, the next two weeks—especially earnings season—will test whether the stock can break above $148 and validate the call-heavy positioning. But if the puts at $142–$143 start to blow out, it’s time to reassess. The key takeaway? PEP isn’t a straight-line trade—it’s a chess game between cost-cutting execution and consumer retention. Play it smart.