People’s Earnings Call Contradictions: Google Litigation Timelines and MGM Valuation Don’t Match

Date of Call: Aug 4, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: Digital revenue grew 6% in Q2, with 11 straight quarters of growth.
• Operating Margin: Digital adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 26% versus 23% last year.

Guidance:

• PeopleLink operating EBITDA expected to be $325-$355M for full year 2026.
• Emerging and Other EBITDA guidance increased to $10-$15M for full year 2026.
• People, Inc. (IAC parent) corporate costs expected to be $80M under new EBITDA definition.
• Corporate costs to step down to below $20M in Q4 and further in Q1 2027, targeting a $45M annual run rate.
• Overall guide for People, Inc. EBITDA is $255-$290M for 2026.

Business Commentary:

Digital Revenue Growth and Non-Session-Based Initiatives:

• People Incorporated reported its 11th consecutive quarter of digital revenue growth, with a 6% increase in Q2.
• Non-session-based revenue grew by 16%, driven by events, social extensions, licensing, and Decipher.
• The growth was supported by a strategic shift towards brand-led non-session-based revenue, showcasing the durability of iconic brands and effective monetization strategies in new initiatives.

AI and Licensing Opportunities:

• The company highlighted significant benefits from AI across operations, including content production and ad targeting, leading to efficiency gains.
• Licensing revenue grew by 23%, bolstered by AI partnerships and content licensing deals, reflecting the increasing demand for high-quality content inputs in AI models.

Corporate Cost Reduction and Leadership Transition:

• Corporate costs at People, Inc. are expected to decline, aligning with a target of $45 million annual run rate and $30 million total company stock-based compensation post-consolidation.
• The reduction is part of a broader strategy to simplify the corporate structure and is accompanied by a leadership transition, with Neil Vogel becoming CEO and Tim Quinn becoming CFO.

MGM Investment and Strategic Focus:

• People Incorporated aims to increase its ownership in MGM, viewing it as a long-term investment despite current market challenges.
• The strategic focus on MGM is based on confidence in its management and business, with potential resolutions expected within the next 60 days.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "We’re increasingly shifting resources to new initiatives... and we’re able to deliver not only on our revenue goals, but on our profitability goals as well." "We feel very optimistic about our ability to reach audiences in new places." "We’re on track to deliver on our 2026 financial goals while simultaneously investing in new products."

Q&A:

• Question from Justin Patterson (KeyBank): What are the latest initiatives to mitigate core session declines, and how is the licensing pipeline building?
  Response: Management highlighted 11 straight quarters of digital revenue growth driven by brand strength and new non-session-based revenue streams. For licensing, they see momentum in AI partnerships, with deals like OpenAI and Meta, and content licensing like Netflix, but had no new announcements.

• Question from Dan Kernos (StoneX): Can you discuss the implications of potentially blocking Google, and talk about the nature of the limited partner sale?
  Response: Blocking Google is a tool to seek a fair economic deal for content use, but the scale currently tips to maintaining the status quo. The LP stake sale of HLVP funds to private investors is expected to close in Q3 for ~$189M, with capital losses offset by remaining NOLs.

• Question from John Blackledge (TD Cowan): Can you discuss Q2 digital revenue and EBITDA puts and takes, and the trajectory for Q3? Also, broader ad market trends?
  Response: Q2 performance was driven by non-session-based revenue growth and holding session-based revenue. Q3 expected similar to H1, with moderation in performance marketing offset by ad acceleration. Broader ad market rated 6/10, with strength in health, pharma, beauty, media but caution in food, beverage, CPG.

• Question from Jason Helfstein (Oppenheimer): Why do you think MGM is undervalued, and what is the glide path to double-digit digital growth?
  Response: MGM's math implies a 50% discount to peers; management believes in its long-term strategy. To return to >10% digital growth, they will layer new non-session-based projects onto the current high-single-digit formula, targeting meaningful momentum in 2027+.

• Question from Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs): Any update on Toro's operating performance? What drove the strong revenue growth in Emerging and Other?
  Response: Turo executed well with 17% revenue growth, strong EBITDA margins, and expects to outperform public peers. Emerging and Other growth driven by strong execution at Daily Beast (multi-channel innovation) and Vivian (AI implementation, superior product, scaling margins).

• Question from James Henney (Jefferies): How should we model corporate expenses going forward?
  Response: Corporate costs expected to decline: ~$20M in Q3, below $20M in Q4, and further down in Q1 2027, targeting a $45M annual run rate by end of Q1 2027.

• Question from Steven Ju (UBS): What are the plans for content creation between print and digital, and housing expenses in one segment?
  Response: Print remains important for brand and subscribers, but advertising is declining. Content operations are unified under one editor-in-chief; as print ad revenue becomes immaterial, there is potential to view total revenue (print + digital) as one business in the future.

• Question from Tom Champion (Piper Sandler): Why is the old acquisition model no longer viable, and what is the timeline for the Google litigation?
  Response: Fewer and less interesting acquisition opportunities at attractive prices led to a strategic pivot to focusing on existing assets. Google litigation expected to resolve in 2027, with a potential material settlement based on anti-competitive practices findings.

Contradiction Point 1

Google Ad Tech Litigation Timeline

Direct contradiction on when the case will be resolved.

What did Tom Champion from Piper Sandler discuss during the earnings call? - Tom Champion (Piper Sandler)

2026Q2: The Google litigation is expected to resolve in 2027, based on government findings of anti-competitive practices in ad tech. - Neil Vogel(CEO)

For Barry Diller, why is the old acquisition model no longer viable and what has changed, and for Neil Vogel, what is the timeline for the Google litigation? - Ross Sandler (Barclays)

2026Q1: The process is expected to take the entirety of 2026 into the first half of 2027. - Neil Vogel(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Corporate Expense Trajectory

The expected timeline and run-rate for corporate expense reductions are inconsistent.

James Henney (Jefferies) - James Henney (Jefferies)

2026Q2: Corporate expenses are on a downward trajectory. Q3 is expected to be around $20M, Q4 below $20M, and Q1 2027 even lower. The full consolidation is targeted to be complete by Q2 2027, with a run-rate expense target of $45M. - Tim Quinn(CFO)

How should we model corporate expenses moving forward? - Cory Carpenter (JPMorgan Chase & Co)

2025Q4: On simplification, IAC has been streamlining for years, reducing overhead. With key businesses now focused, simplification will continue throughout the year. - Barry Diller(Chairman)

Contradiction Point 3

MGM's Valuation and Strategic Fit

Shift from viewing MGM as a growth asset to a potential divestiture.

Jason Helfstein (Oppenheimer) - Jason Helfstein (Oppenheimer)

2026Q2: MGM is seen as undervalued... If the buyout doesn't succeed, MGM's standalone value is believed to be below its fair value. - Barry Diller(Chairman)

What is the valuation logic for MGM and potential outcomes if the buyout fails, and what is the glide path to achieving double-digit digital growth? - Cory Carpenter (JPMorgan)

2026Q1: The prospect for MGM is strong, bolstered by the upcoming opening of a large resort in Japan... The stock has been discounted, allowing for significant share buybacks. - Barry Diller(Chairman)

Contradiction Point 4

Digital Revenue Growth Trajectory

Inconsistency between current growth rates and the path to double-digit growth.

What are the key takeaways from Jason Helfstein's (Oppenheimer) earnings call analysis? - Jason Helfstein (Oppenheimer)

2026Q2: The goal is to exceed 10% growth relatively soon, though no specific timeframe is given. - Neil Vogel(CEO)

What is the valuation logic for MGM, the potential risks if the buyout fails, and the glide path to achieving double-digit digital growth? - John Blackledge (TD Cowen)

2026Q1: Non-session-based revenue... is expected to continue growing meaningfully, with Decipher... anticipated to add 200-300 basis points of growth in the back half of 2026 and into 2027. - Neil Vogel(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Nature of Google Ad Tech Disruption and Company's Response

The characterization of the Google disruption and the company's strategic response to it have shifted.

Dan Kernos (StoneX) - Dan Kernos (StoneX)

2026Q2: The objective is to get Google to split its search and AI crawlers. Currently, Google uses a single crawler, so blocking AI would also block search traffic, which is still material. The company is monitoring this trade-off and will use all tools to seek a fair economic deal for content use. - Barry Diller(Chairman)

What are the implications of turning off or blocking Google, given ongoing regulatory discussions? - Eric Sheridan (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q4: The ad market is rated a 6 out of 10, healthy and solid... Regarding guidance, moving to annual guidance frees teams from quarterly volatility, focusing on execution. The company will provide qualitative market commentary but no quarterly financial guidance. - Neil Vogel(CEO), Christopher Halpin(CFO)