PENGU Token's Volatile Trajectory: Technical Analysis and Momentum Drivers in Late 2025

The PENGU token has emerged as a focal point of debate in late 2025, with its recent price action reflecting a tug-of-war between bearish momentum and emerging bullish signals. Over the past week, the token has experienced a 30.5% decline, settling at approximately $0.01485 as of November 7, 2025, while trading within a narrow range of $0.01454 to $0.01666, according to a Cryptonewsland report. This volatility, coupled with mixed technical indicators and derivatives activity, underscores a market in transition. Below, we dissect the key drivers shaping PENGU's short-term trajectory.

Price Action and Support-Level Dynamics

PENGU's recent selloff has been punctuated by critical support levels that may dictate its near-term direction. On November 5, the token fell over 10% amid heightened Bitcoin dominance and leveraged short positions clustered near $0.0157, with derivatives data revealing $7.68 million in shorts against $3.67 million in longs, as reported by a Coinotag report. However, the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal as the price holds above the key $0.01454 support level, suggesting potential stabilization, according to the Cryptonewsland report. This technical cue, combined with the token's reduced volatility compared to prior selloffs, hints at a possible bottoming process.

Technical Indicators: Bearish Short-Term, Ambiguous Medium-Term

Short-term moving averages (8, 13, 21, 55 SMA) all trend bearish, with negative percentages ranging from -1.29% to -1.80%, while the 144 SMA remains the sole positive indicator at +3.96%, according to a RSI Hunter analysis. The 1-hour RSI of 40 places the asset in a neutral zone, but the 7-day RSI of 55 suggests a faint bullish bias over the longer term, according to the RSI Hunter analysis. This duality is further complicated by the 14-day price decline of -10.21%, which underscores the fragility of upward momentum, according to the RSI Hunter analysis. Analysts have consequently issued a "strong sell" rating for the 1-week horizon but a "neutral" outlook for the 1-month period, according to a TradingView technical analysis.

MACD and On-Chain Momentum: Early Signs of Easing Pressure

The MACD indicator for PENGU has shown a slight positive shift in late 2025, signaling a potential slowdown in bearish momentum as the price approached $0.01589, according to a MindMathMoney guide. This aligns with a cumulative volume delta (CVD) of -$64 million, indicating waning selling pressure, according to the MindMathMoney guide. On-chain data further reveals a 30% increase in active addresses and a 3.2% rise in whale accumulation over 30 days, suggesting growing adoption and institutional confidence despite a 37.29% price decline in the same period, according to a Zignaly guide.

Derivatives Activity: Pessimism Persists

Despite these cautiously optimistic on-chain signals, derivatives markets remain bearish. Short positions at $0.01579 total $7.68 million, with leveraged trades concentrated between 25x and 50x, according to the MindMathMoney guide. This imbalance reflects ongoing skepticism among derivatives traders, who view PENGU as a high-risk asset in the short term.

Strategic Implications

The data paints a nuanced picture: while technical indicators and on-chain metrics hint at a potential stabilization, derivatives activity and short-term moving averages reinforce a bearish bias. For investors, the TD Sequential buy signal and improving CVD suggest a cautious "hold" strategy, with a focus on monitoring the $0.01454 support level. A sustained break above $0.01666 could reignite bullish momentum, but until then, the path of least resistance remains downward.