PENGU Token Technical Analysis: Navigating Short-Term Volatility and On-Chain Signals

The PENGU token, a memecoin tied to the Pudgy Penguins NFT project, has exhibited a complex interplay of technical and on-chain signals in recent weeks. As of November 2025, the asset faces a critical juncture, with conflicting short-term momentum indicators and accumulating on-chain activity suggesting both potential for a breakout and risks of further correction. This analysis synthesizes key data to evaluate the token's trajectory.

Short-Term Momentum: Bearish Bias with Emerging Divergence

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The 14-day RSI for PENGU/USD stands at 38.705, firmly in oversold territory and signaling short-term bearish momentum. Moving averages from MA5 to MA200 have generated 12 sell signals and no buy signals, reinforcing a "Strong Sell" outlook according to analysis. However, divergences emerge in the MACD and On-Balance Volume (OBV). The MACD has crossed into positive territory, a bullish signal, while OBV has risen steadily since November 4, reflecting growing buying pressure.

This divergence suggests a potential stabilization phase. A TD Sequential buy signal has emerged, hinting at a possible reversal of the 28.5% decline since October 27. Yet, PENGU remains trapped in a tight consolidation range between $0.01454 and $0.01666, with the $0.01454 support level repeatedly tested. A sustained break above $0.01666 would be critical to validate a broader bullish shift according to analysis.

On-Chain Activity: Accumulation and Structural Setup

On-chain metrics provide further nuance. PENGU has begun challenging a descending trendline and breaking out of a falling wedge pattern, historically bullish formations. A daily close above $0.0235–$0.024 resistance could confirm this breakout, with a projected target of $0.026 (20–25% upside) if volume supports the move.

Accumulation by large holders adds credibility to this scenario. Whale wallets have acquired $273,000 worth of PENGU, establishing a potential price floor. Additionally, Q4 2025 data reveals $9.4 million in exchange outflows and $1.8 million in fresh inflows, signaling trader confidence. Whale participation has also surged, with $7.68 million in short positions at $0.01579 and 2 billion tokens moved from team wallets to exchanges according to reports. These actions suggest strategic positioning ahead of a potential breakout.

However, risks persist. The token's NVT score-a metric combining network value and transaction volume-remains unquantified in recent data, limiting direct assessment of buying pressure. Broader technical indicators, including OBV and MACD, still reflect bearish pressure despite short-term gains.

Synthesis: A Tipping Point for PENGU

The PENGU token is at a pivotal moment. While technical indicators like RSI and moving averages underscore near-term bearishness, divergences in MACD and OBV, coupled with on-chain accumulation, suggest a potential inflection point. The retesting of the $0.020–$0.021 support zone on the 4-hour chart could determine whether PENGU transitions from consolidation to a sustained rally.

For investors, the key variables will be volume during a breakout attempt and the ability to hold above critical resistance levels. A successful break above $0.0235 could trigger a move toward $0.026–$0.02697, representing a 27% upside. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.01454 would likely reignite the bearish trend.

Conclusion: Caution Amidst Opportunity

PENGU's technical and on-chain profile reflects a tug-of-war between short-term sellers and accumulating buyers. While the bearish bias remains intact, the convergence of structural patterns, whale activity, and divergent momentum indicators suggests a higher probability of a near-term breakout than a prolonged correction. Investors should monitor volume dynamics and key resistance levels closely, as these will determine whether PENGU transitions from a consolidation phase to a sustained upward move.

[1] Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Technical Analysis [https://www.investing.com/crypto/pudgy-penguins/technical]
[2] Technical analysis - PENGU / TetherUS [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/PENGUUSDT/technicals/]
[3] PENGU Buy Signal Emerges: TD Sequential Flashes Green as Price Holds Above Key $0.01454 Support [https://cryptonewsland.com/pengu-buy-signal-emerges-td-sequential-flashes/]
[4] PENGU Memecoin Rallies 12.8% on Bitcoin Rebound, Short-Term Momentum Builds [https://en.coinotag.com/pengu-memecoin-rallies-12-8-on-bitcoin-rebound-short-term-momentum-builds/]
[5] Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Price Prediction: Bullish Accumulation Builds as Breakout Signals Point Towards $0.05 [https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/pudgy-penguins-pengu-price-prediction-bullish-accumulation-builds-as-breakout-signals-point-towards-0-05]
[6] Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Retesting Key Breakout [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605035721]
[7] PENGU Token Value Soars: An In-Depth Technical and On-Chain Analysis [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605067922]
[8] PENGU Price Forecast: A Fresh Upward Driver Appears [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605069510]