PENGU Token's Recent Surge: A Technical Analysis of Momentum and Sentiment

The PENGU token, native to the Pudgy Penguins NFT ecosystem, has experienced a volatile yet intriguing price trajectory in November 2025, driven by a mix of on-chain activity, institutional interest, and macroeconomic catalysts. This analysis evaluates the token's short-to-mid-term trading potential, focusing on technical indicators, funding flow shifts, and structural levels critical for active traders.

On-Chain Activity and Funding Flows

Recent on-chain data reveals a complex interplay of bullish and bearish signals. Seasoned traders injected $157,000 into PENGU, while whale accumulation reached $273,000, suggesting strategic price support efforts according to Bitget. However, these inflows were partially offset by $66.6 million in outflows from team wallets, raising concerns about potential dumping or profit-taking according to Bitget. The PENGU/USDT trading pair saw a 33% surge in activity, driven by both retail and institutional participants according to Bitget, indicating heightened liquidity.

A critical factor is the Cboe's PENGU/NFT ETF filing under SEC review. If approved, this could unlock institutional capital inflows, mirroring Bitcoin's post-ETF surge according to Crypto.com. Conversely, a rejection could trigger sharp sell-offs, as seen in prior regulatory decisions according to Crypto.com. Meanwhile, Pudgy Penguins' NFT sales volume plummeted by 36% in a week, dropping to $2.8 million according to Crypto.com, signaling waning speculative interest-a bearish structural risk.

Technical Indicators and Structural Levels

PENGU's technical profile presents a mixed picture. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) has remained positive since November 4, 2025, reflecting accumulation by informed market participants according to Bitget. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also turned bullish, reinforcing upward momentum according to Bitget. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit overbought levels, suggesting short-term downward correction according to Bitget.

Price action reveals a five-wave structure on the 1-hour chart, with Wave 4 retracing toward the $0.01050–$0.01060 zone-a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal according to Brave New Coin. The token currently trades at $0.01103, having reclaimed the $0.0106–$0.0110 range after a brief dip according to Brave New Coin. Key resistance lies at $0.012, where a breakdown could trigger cascading liquidations and a retest of $0.004 levels according to Crypto.com. Conversely, a breakout above $0.0235-following a wedge pattern-could target $0.026 according to Bitget.

FTX-Related Catalysts and Market Sentiment

The lingering shadow of FTX's collapse continues to influence PENGU's trajectory. Regulatory pressures, including the U.S. GENIUS Act and EU MiCA, have increased compliance costs and restricted liquidity for speculative tokens according to Bitget. Additionally, the November 3, 2025, Balancer DeFi exploit exacerbated market instability, triggering cascading failures in interconnected protocols according to Bitget. This event accelerated PENGU's decline as investors liquidated positions amid heightened uncertainty according to Bitget.

FTX's ongoing repayment plan also played a role. In late 2025, the exchange distributed $1.6 billion to creditors, with smaller account holders receiving up to 120% of their deposits according to Crypto Research. This liquidity redistribution indirectly impacted PENGU by altering broader market dynamics. Meanwhile, Pudgy Penguins' partnerships with Bearbrick and Kung Fu Panda aim to bolster brand liquidity and retail appeal according to Crypto Research, offering long-term bullish potential.

Risk/Reward Implications for Traders

For active traders, PENGU presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario. A bullish case hinges on:
1. Support Holding at $0.012: If this level stabilizes, PENGU could rally toward $0.0235 and beyond according to Bitget.
2. ETF Approval: A green light for the Cboe ETF could catalyze institutional inflows, mirroring Bitcoin's 2024 surge according to Crypto.com.
3. Utility-Driven Accumulation: The Pudgy Party mobile game's $9.4 million in strategic inflows according to Bitget and whale accumulation ($273,000) suggest continued demand according to Bitget.

Conversely, risks include:
- Regulatory Rejection: A denied ETF filing could trigger a sharp sell-off according to Crypto.com.
- Structural Weakness: A breakdown below $0.012 could lead to a retest of $0.004 levels according to Crypto.com.
- NFT Market Contraction: The 36% drop in NFT sales according to Crypto.com signals waning speculative interest, compounding bearish pressures.

Conclusion

PENGU Token's recent surge reflects a tug-of-war between bullish accumulation and bearish structural risks. While technical indicators like OBV and MACD suggest short-term momentum, overbought RSI levels and regulatory uncertainties demand caution. Traders should closely monitor the $0.012 support and $0.0235 resistance, alongside the Cboe ETF filing's outcome. For those with a risk appetite, a breakout above $0.0235 could justify a mid-term bullish stance, but stop-loss orders below $0.01050 are prudent to mitigate downside risks.