PENGU Token Price Surge and Technical Outlook: Short-Term Momentum and On-Chain Signals for Speculative Crypto Trading

The PENGU token, native to the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem, has recently captured the attention of speculative traders and technical analysts amid a sharp price surge in late November 2025. This rally, which saw the token break out of key technical patterns and retest critical resistance levels, has been fueled by a combination of on-chain activity, macroeconomic optimism, and speculative fervor. While direct on-chain metrics for PENGU remain elusive due to data conflation with other protocols, broader market dynamics and technical indicators suggest a continuation of bullish momentum-if certain conditions hold.

Technical Catalysts: A Confluence of Patterns

According to BraveNewCoin, PENGU's price action from November 10 to 18, 2025, exhibited a textbook bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern, a strong rebound off the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), and a retest of the median line of a pitchfork channel. These patterns, often precursors to sustained upward trends, indicate that buyers have taken control of key support levels, particularly the $0.0355 threshold. A successful breakout above this level has positioned the token for a potential run toward $0.043–$0.045, with further upside to $0.048 or even $0.065 in a favorable market environment.

The technical case is further bolstered by the token's volume profile. While specific on-chain data for PENGU remains unverified, the broader memecoin sector has seen a surge in trading activity, with nominal volumes across related protocols hitting $233.9 billion in Q3 2025-a 236.1% increase from the prior quarter. This suggests that PENGU's rally is part of a larger speculative wave, driven by retail investor enthusiasm and algorithmic trading strategies amplifying liquidity.

Macro and Market Sentiment: ETF Hype and Market Cap Projections

Beyond technicals, macroeconomic optimism has played a pivotal role. Analysts like Luffy Taro have speculated that the potential approval of an ETF involving PENGU could trigger a parabolic price move, drawing parallels to historical surges in tokens like PEPE. Such catalysts often create self-fulfilling prophecies, as speculative buying accelerates ahead of perceived institutional validation.

Market cap comparisons also hint at untapped potential. If PENGU were to achieve a market capitalization comparable to PEPE's, its price could surge to $0.094-a 119% gain from current levels. This projection, while ambitious, underscores the token's growing adoption in the memecoin space and the willingness of traders to extrapolate bullish scenarios.

On-Chain Ambiguity: Pendle's TVL vs. PENGU's Momentum

A critical caveat to this analysis lies in the conflation of data. While reports highlight Pendle's Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $8.75 billion in Q3 2025-a 118.8% increase from the previous quarter-this metric pertains to the Pendle protocol, not Pudgy Penguins' PENGU token. This confusion complicates efforts to assess PENGU's on-chain health directly. However, the broader surge in TVL and trading volume across the crypto sector suggests that PENGU's rally is part of a systemic trend, with speculative capital flowing into high-momentum assets regardless of protocol-specific metrics.

Risks and Caution for Speculators

Despite the bullish case, traders must remain vigilant. PENGU's price action remains highly speculative, with its success hinging on the continuation of retail-driven demand and the absence of regulatory headwinds. A failure to hold the $0.0355 support level could trigger a reversal, with short-term traders likely to exit positions if the token fails to break above $0.045. Additionally, the lack of granular on-chain data for PENGU itself introduces uncertainty, as it is unclear whether the token's TVL or wallet activity mirrors the broader market's vigor.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Play

For speculative traders, PENGU presents a compelling short-term opportunity, provided they manage risk carefully. The technical setup, combined with macro optimism and sector-wide liquidity, creates a favorable environment for further gains. However, the absence of protocol-specific on-chain data and the token's inherent volatility necessitate a cautious approach. Investors should treat PENGU as a high-leverage bet on the memecoin narrative, with stop-loss orders and position sizing calibrated to mitigate downside risks.

As the crypto market continues to evolve, PENGU's trajectory will likely hinge on whether it can sustain its breakout momentum or succumb to the inevitable profit-taking. For now, the charts and sentiment suggest the former-but the path to $0.075 remains anything but certain.