PENGU Token Price Surge: Decoding Short-Term Momentum and Investor Psychology in November 2025

The PENGU token, tied to the Pudgy Penguins NFT collection, has experienced a notable price surge in late 2025, driven by a mix of technical indicators, on-chain activity, and evolving investor sentiment. As the token navigates a critical juncture, understanding the interplay between short-term momentum and psychological factors becomes essential for assessing whether this rally represents a high-conviction entry or exit opportunity.

Technical Indicators: Bearish Divergence and Hidden Bullish Signals

Recent on-chain data reveals a complex technical landscape. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for PENGU stands at 38.705, signaling bearish momentum and 12 sell signals from moving averages, with no corresponding buy signals. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has entered positive territory, while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has steadily risen since November 4, 2025, suggesting growing buying interest. This divergence between price action and volume metrics hints at a potential stabilization phase.

On-chain patterns further complicate the narrative. PENGU has broken out of a falling wedge and is challenging a downward trendline, with a key resistance level at $0.0235. If this level holds and trading volume surges, the token could target $0.026. Whale activity also plays a pivotal role: large holders have accumulated $273,000 in PENGU, potentially establishing a price floor. Meanwhile, Q4 2025 exchange outflows totaled $9.4 million, while new inflows reached $1.8 million, reflecting cautious optimism among traders.

Investor Psychology: Accumulation, Short Positions, and Strategic Transfers

Investor behavior underscores the token's volatility. Whale accumulation of $273,000 in PENGU indicates strategic positioning ahead of a potential breakout, aligning with the on-chain breakout patterns. Conversely, short positions have surged to $7.68 million, revealing lingering bearish sentiment. Additionally, 2 billion tokens were transferred from team wallets to exchanges in Q4 2025, a move that could signal either liquidity provision or a bearish signal, depending on market interpretation.

The broader DeFi ecosystem also influences psychology. Uniswap's recent launch of Continuous Clearing Auctions aims to improve token price discovery and liquidity. While PENGU's direct participation in CCA remains unconfirmed, the mechanism's emphasis on fair price discovery could indirectly benefit tokens like PENGU by enhancing market transparency and reducing volatility.

Risks and Caution: NVT Score and Support-Level Vulnerability

Despite bullish catalysts, risks persist. The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) score for PENGU remains unquantified, leaving investors without a clear metric to assess whether the token is overvalued or undervalued. Additionally, key support levels, such as $0.01454, are vulnerable to breakdowns, which could trigger a deeper correction. These uncertainties highlight the need for caution, particularly given the token's mixed technical signals.

Conclusion: A High-Conviction Entry or Exit?

The PENGU token's price surge in November 2025 presents a nuanced case for investors. While technical indicators like the MACD and OBV, coupled with whale accumulation, suggest a potential bullish breakout, the bearish RSI, short positions, and unquantified NVT score introduce significant risks. For high-conviction entries, investors must closely monitor volume at the $0.0235 resistance level and whale activity. Conversely, the surge in short positions and support-level fragility make a strong case for cautious exits or hedging strategies.

In the end, the PENGU token's trajectory will hinge on whether the current on-chain accumulation and DeFi-driven liquidity improvements outweigh the bearish technical headwinds.