PENGU's TD9 Signal and Key Resistance Breakout: A High-Conviction Entry Opportunity?

The Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) token has been a focal point for crypto traders and analysts in late 2025, with technical indicators and price action suggesting a potential breakout. This article examines whether PENGU's recent TD9 Signal and its proximity to key resistance levels present a high-conviction entry opportunity, leveraging technical momentum validation and short-term breakout potential.

TD9 Signal: A Catalyst for Trend Reversal

The Tom DeMark Sequential (TD9) indicator has emerged as a critical tool for identifying potential trend reversals in PENGU's price action. According to TrendSpider, the TD9 operates by counting price bars in a trend-assigning a "1" when a candle closes higher than four periods ago in a bullish trend, incrementing up to "9" to signal a potential reversal. For PENGU, this pattern has materialized across multiple timeframes. On the 3-day chart, a TD Sequential "9" candle was observed, coinciding with a breakout from a falling wedge pattern on the 12-hour timeframe. Analysts like Ali Martinez and Sjuul have highlighted these signals as confirmation of a bullish reversal, suggesting that PENGU's downtrend may be losing momentum.

Further, the weekly chart revealed a TD Sequential buy signal, reinforcing the idea of trend fatigue and hinting at a new upside phase. These signals, when combined with bullish divergences on the daily RSI and a bull flag pattern between $0.0108 and $0.0122, create a compelling case for short-term optimism.

Key Resistance Levels and Breakout Validation

The critical resistance level of $0.013 has been a focal point for PENGU's price action. Data from CoinMarketCap indicates that PENGU tested this level but failed to confirm a breakout in the 48 hours preceding December 29, 2025. The closing price on that date was $0.008893, significantly below $0.013. However, recent on-chain metrics and market sentiment suggest renewed interest. A 13% surge in the last 24 hours, supported by strong On Balance Volume (OBV) and reduced selling pressure, has pushed PENGU into a potential breakout phase.

Technical analysts emphasize that a sustained close above $0.013 would validate the bullish case, opening the door to targets at $0.016, $0.022, and even $0.027. This level is reinforced by prior failed rallies, making it a psychologically significant threshold. Additionally, PENGU's price action has formed higher lows and higher highs, confirming a trend reversal from a prior downtrend. The RSI currently reads around 58–59, indicating sustained buying pressure without reaching overbought levels, while the MACD remains in positive territory.

Momentum Indicators: Mixed Signals for Trend Sustainability

While the TD9 and price patterns are bullish, momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The RSI for PENGU stands at 60.01, a neutral reading, and the MACD (12, 26) shows a neutral signal at 0.00. This suggests no strong directional bias. However, PENGU has traded above key moving averages, with the MACD histogram turning positive. Recent profit-taking following a high-profile partnership and broader market conditions have led to a 2.35% drop in 24-hour trading. These indicators imply that while short-term bullish momentum exists, sustainability remains uncertain due to regulatory uncertainties and market sentiment.

Conclusion: High-Conviction Opportunity with Caution

PENGU's technical setup presents a high-conviction entry opportunity for traders willing to navigate the risks. The TD9 Signal, combined with bullish patterns like the falling wedge and bull flag, suggests a potential trend reversal. However, the failure to confirm a breakout above $0.013 as of December 29, 2025, underscores the need for caution. A sustained close above this level would validate the bullish case, while a failure to hold key support at $0.0115 could trigger a pullback.

For investors, the key takeaway is to monitor PENGU's ability to hold above $0.013 and maintain positive momentum. If the token sustains its current trajectory, the path to $0.040 and beyond becomes more plausible. However, regulatory headwinds and liquidity concerns remain risks that could derail the rally. In a market where sentiment and technicals often collide, PENGU's next move could define its trajectory in early 2026.