PENGU Price Prediction: Is $0.015 the Next Major Threshold for Pudgy Penguins?

The Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) token has long been a speculative asset tied to the broader NFT ecosystem, but recent technical and on-chain developments suggest a pivotal inflection point may be approaching. As the token consolidates near the $0.010–$0.011 support zone, traders and analysts are fixated on whether $0.015-a historically significant resistance level-can be breached in the short to midterm. This analysis explores the technical confluence, on-chain momentum, and institutional dynamics shaping PENGU's trajectory.

Technical Confluence: A Bullish Setup?

PENGU's price action in late 2025 has painted a compelling case for a potential breakout. On the 4-hour chart, a well-defined bull flag pattern is forming between $0.0108 and $0.0122, with long wicks on recent candlesticks signaling diminishing sell pressure. If this pattern resolves, the price could target the $0.0135–$0.0140 zone before testing the critical $0.015 resistance.

A key technical catalyst is the TD Sequential Buy Signal on the weekly chart, a tool historically used to identify trend exhaustion. Meanwhile, daily RSI divergence-a scenario where price makes fresh lows while RSI prints higher lows- further reinforces the idea that downside momentum is waning. These signals, combined with the token's consolidation near key support, create a "confluence" of bullish conditions.

However, caution is warranted. Institutional selling pressure has spiked, with PENGU being the most sold token by smart money in the last 24 hours. This suggests that while the technical setup is constructive, early breakouts could face volatility or false signals. Traders are advised to wait for confirmation-such as a sustained close above $0.015-before committing capital.

On-Chain Momentum: Whales and Wallets Signal Optimism

On-chain data adds another layer of intrigue. In October 2025, PENGU's transaction volume surged to $2.3 billion, reflecting heightened liquidity and market participation. Active addresses have also spiked to over 500,000, indicating growing community adoption and institutional interest. Whale activity is particularly noteworthy: a single week saw 240 million PENGU tokens acquired by large holders, suggesting strategic accumulation ahead of a potential price move.

Derivatives data further supports this narrative. Short positions at $0.01579 totaled $7.68 million, but improving volume delta and a green MACD signal indicate bearish momentum is losing steam. If PENGU can reclaim the $0.016 resistance level with strong volume, the path to $0.019–$0.021 becomes more plausible.

Risks and Realities: A Balancing Act

Despite the bullish case, PENGU remains below its 2024 high of $0.06845 and is still trading below critical EMAs like the 50-day and 200-day lines. This underscores the broader bearish context. A breakdown below the $0.0110 support could reignite selling pressure, potentially dragging the price toward $0.009 or lower.

Moreover, while the proposed Canary PENGU ETF has spurred institutional interest, regulatory and market uncertainties remain. The token's reliance on the NFT ecosystem-a sector still recovering from 2022–2023 downturns-adds another layer of risk.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Volatility Play

PENGU's technical and on-chain indicators paint a cautiously optimistic picture for a $0.015 breakout. The bull flag, RSI divergence, and whale accumulation suggest a potential short-term rally, with mid-term targets at $0.017–$0.020 if the breakout holds. However, traders must remain vigilant about institutional selling and the fragility of key support levels.

For investors, the $0.015 threshold represents both a psychological and technical milestone. If buyers can overcome this resistance with conviction, PENGU could re-enter a bullish trend. But until then, the token remains a high-volatility, high-reward asset best approached with disciplined risk management.