PENGU's $0.015 Support Sparks Rebound Hopes Amid Derivatives Short Overhang

The Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) token has plunged over 22% since November began, trading at $0.01589 as of Nov. 7, 2025, amid broader altcoin weakness and Bitcoin dominance. However, technical indicators and on-chain data suggest a potential short-term rebound could be on the horizon. The TD Sequential oscillator-a tool used to identify overbought and oversold conditions-has generated a buy signal near the $0.015 support level, sparking optimism among traders.

The recent selloff was driven by leveraged short positions piling into the $0.0157 zone, pushing prices down by over 10% in a 24-hour period. Despite the bearish momentum, the cumulative volume delta (CVD) of -$64 million-a measure of buying pressure-showed improvement from last week's -$326 million, hinting at waning selling intensity. Additionally, the MACD indicator turned faintly green, signaling a potential pause in the downtrend, according to an Ambcrypto report.

Analysts at Ali Charts highlighted the TD Sequential buy signal as a key catalyst for a recovery. The indicator typically identifies price exhaustion in downtrends, and its activation near $0.015 suggests a possible reversal if PENGU can reclaim the $0.0177–$0.0190 support zone, the Ambcrypto piece noted. This aligns with on-chain data from Nansen AI, which revealed that top PnL traders held 97% of their PENGU holdings, including a $75,000 accumulation, despite a 48x surge in 24-hour trading volume to $241.7 million.

Derivatives data, however, paints a mixed picture. Short positions on exchanges totaled $7.68 million, with aggressive leverage concentrated at $0.01579, where 25x–50x shorts dominated. Binance alone held $3.35 million in short exposure, compared to $1.77 million in longs. This imbalance suggests derivatives traders remain bearish, but spot buyers could limit further downside if demand builds above $0.0177.

Long-term fundamentals for PENGU remain bleak. CoinCodex's price prediction model forecasts a 25.08% decline to $0.01193 by December 7, 2025, according to CoinCodex's price model. The token's 50-day and 200-day moving averages ($0.02534 and $0.02133, respectively) are far above current levels, indicating a prolonged bearish trend, the model also shows.

Meanwhile, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), a key player in the broader financial sector, faces its own challenges. The bank recently announced the closure of 51 U.S. branches, including six in Massachusetts, in a Boston.com report. Despite these moves, TD's stock has outperformed the Finance sector, rising 0.86% over the past month, and carries a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) due to positive earnings revisions, according to a Nasdaq analysis. These developments underscore a broader trend of financial institutions adapting to shifting market dynamics, which could indirectly influence investor sentiment toward risk assets like PENGU.

The launch of the Evolve Big Six Canadian Banks UltraYield Index ETF (SIXY) further highlights institutional interest in the financial sector, according to a Newsfile release. While SIXY focuses on Canadian banks, its success could signal a broader appetite for yield-generating assets, potentially diverting capital from speculative tokens like PENGU.

For PENGU to stage a meaningful recovery, bulls must first defend the $0.01772–$0.01900 zone. A sustained break above this level could trigger short-covering and attract new buyers, but derivatives pressure and weak spot demand remain headwinds. In the absence of a significant catalyst, such as a major exchange listing or regulatory development, PENGU's near-term outlook remains bearish, with the 12-month target at $0.01193.