Pendle/Bitcoin Market Overview: Rally and Consolidation in a Volatile 24-Hour Session

• Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) rallied 0.43% over 24 hours with a strong close near the session high.
• Momentum accelerated mid-day, peaking at 19:15 ET before consolidating into a tight range.
• Volatility expanded during the bullish breakout, supported by a 5420.6 volume spike.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near the daily close, hinting at potential near-term profit-taking.
• Price tested a descending triangle pattern on the 15-minute chart, with a likely break above 4.20e-05.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at 4.117e-05 at 12:00 ET−1 on October 2, 2025, and traded in a volatile range to close at 4.109e-05 at 12:00 ET October 3. The pair reached a high of 4.20e-05 and a low of 4.035e-05 during the session. Total traded volume was 19,776.8, with a notional turnover of $836.77. The 24-hour period showed strong on-chain activity and clear directional bias in the afternoon.

The 15-minute chart revealed a series of bullish engulfing patterns between 17:30 and 19:15 ET, confirming a breakout above key resistance at 4.20e-05. A descending triangle formation appeared to resolve during this period, suggesting a continuation of higher prices. A 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in early morning, but was soon overtaken by bullish momentum. Price remained above the 50-period moving average for most of the session, indicating sustained buying pressure.

MACD showed a bullish divergence during the afternoon rally, with the histogram expanding as price surged. RSI peaked at overbought levels near 70, signaling potential exhaustion in the move higher. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout phase, reflecting increased volatility. Price remained within the upper band for nearly four hours before consolidating. A 20-period standard deviation indicated strong volatility, with price near the +1.5σ level at the 19:15 ET high.

Volume surged at key turning points, particularly at 19:15 ET with a 5420.6 volume spike. Turnover mirrored volume closely, showing strong correlation and confirming the authenticity of the price move. A Fibonacci retracement from the high of 4.20e-05 to the low of 4.035e-05 showed the 61.8% level at 4.107e-05 aligning closely with the 12:00 ET close. This level may offer short-term support if the rally stalls in the coming 24 hours.

The price is likely to test key resistance levels above 4.20e-05 in the near term, with a potential pullback into the 4.107e-05–4.13e-05 range expected if the move consolidates. Traders should remain cautious as overbought RSI and high volatility may precede a near-term correction. Strong volume during the breakout suggests conviction in the bullish bias, but a close below 4.06e-05 could invalidate the immediate uptrend.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves using a 15-minute RSI (14) crossover above 50 and a bullish engulfing pattern as entry triggers, with a stop-loss below the recent swing low of 4.035e-05 and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 4.107e-05. The strategy would exit on a close below 4.06e-05 to manage risk. This approach would have captured the rally from 4.06e-05 to 4.20e-05 in the October 3 session, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:0.3. A trailing stop could be added after reaching the 4.15e-05 level to secure gains during the consolidation phase.