Pendle/Bitcoin Market Overview: PENDLEBTC Under Pressure Amid Weak Momentum

• PENDLEBTC declined 7.3% over 24 hours, hitting a low of $0.00004075.
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell below 30, indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility remained constrained, with price tightly clustered within Bollinger Bands.
• Volume surged during the overnight selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• No clear reversal patterns formed, suggesting continued downward pressure.

The Pendle/Bitcoin pair (PENDLEBTC) opened at $0.00004389 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00004424, a low of $0.00003986, and closed at $0.00004200 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 19,484.07, with a notional turnover of approximately $832.10. The price action reflected a bearish bias, with sustained selling pressure evident in the late-night and early-morning hours.

Over the past 24 hours, PENDLEBTC formed several bearish structures including a series of lower highs and lower lows, with key support levels emerging around $0.00004075 and $0.00003986. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the start of the selloff on 2025-09-21 00:30 ET, where price dropped from $0.00004358 to $0.00004208 in a single candle. This was followed by a long bearish candle at 02:45 ET, which saw volume spike to 8,173.5 and price fall to $0.00004208. The price did not recover above that level for the remainder of the session, indicating strong bearish conviction.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both above price during the decline, reinforcing the bearish bias. MACD turned negative and the histogram began to shrink, suggesting that momentum was waning. RSI dipped below 30 and remained there for much of the session, pointing to oversold conditions. However, divergence between price and RSI was not evident, implying that the bearish trend could still extend. Bollinger Bands remained relatively narrow, indicating low volatility, with price staying near the lower band for much of the 24-hour window.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key high of $0.00004424 and low of $0.00003986 showed price currently resting near the 61.8% level at $0.00004137. This level may act as a potential pivot point in the short term. A break below that could target the 78.6% level at $0.00003896, where significant support is likely. On the 15-minute chart, price appears to be forming a falling wedge pattern near the recent lows, which typically suggests continuation if broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve identifying falling wedge formations on the 15-minute chart near key Fibonacci retracement levels. Entry could be triggered on a confirmed break of the wedge’s lower boundary, with stop-loss placement above the wedge’s upper boundary or at the nearest overhead resistance. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci level (e.g., 78.6%) or a fixed risk-reward ratio of 1:2. This approach may be more effective during periods of low volatility and strong trend continuity, as seen in the recent PENDLEBTC action.