PDD's Bearish Options Surge: A Second-Mover Play in Volatile Markets?

In late 2024, Pinduoduo (PDD) became the focal point of a seismic shift in options trading activity, trailing only Apple in volume on the Moomoo platform. The $95 put options expiring in 2025—amassing 66,320 contracts and a V/OI ratio of 120.1x—highlighted a stark pessimism among investors. But what does this mean for PDD’s future? Let’s dissect the data and sentiment driving this “second-place” surge.

The Numbers Behind the Bearish Bet

The $95 put options for PDD represent a massive short-term bet on further declines. With shares plummeting 28.5% to close at $100 in late 2024, traders are pricing in continued headwinds. The most active option, the $140 strike put expiring January 17, 2025, suggests some investors are bracing for a deeper collapse. Meanwhile, a separate $99 put trade—9,410 contracts costing $1.77 million—hints at institutional hedging or speculative shorting.

The data underscores a market divided: while PDD’s e-commerce dominance in China remains undeniable, concerns over competition, regulatory pressures, and slowing consumer spending have fueled skepticism. The 65.43% put option volume share further signals a bear market psychology.

Why Apple Still Rules the Block Trade Roost

Apple’s dominance isn’t accidental. In 2025, it accounted for 45% of all block trades on Moomoo, with average quarterly volumes of $5.8 million per transaction. Its institutional appeal stems from stability: strong cash flows, a diversified product portfolio, and a global brand that insulates it from short-term volatility.

PDD, however, is a growth story with risks. While its 300% year-over-year block trade growth (to 22% of platform activity) reflects investor interest in its Southeast Asian expansion and AI investments, its reliance on a volatile Chinese economy leaves it more exposed.

The Moomoo Lens: Community Sentiment and Tools

Moomoo’s platform amplifies these trends. Its advanced tools—like customizable screeners for high-IV options and Level 2 data for qualified users—allow traders to dissect PDD’s risks. The community’s 5,200 discussion threads on PDD reveal a split: 78% of predictive votes favor long positions, yet the options data tells a different story.

The disconnect? Perhaps retail optimism versus institutional caution. While PDD’s AI logistics acquisition (a community favorite) hints at long-term value, short-term execution risks—like regulatory hurdles—keep pros sidelined.

Expiration Day: The $95 Strike’s Crucible

The $95 puts’ expiration (likely on the third Friday of their contract month, e.g., December 19, 2025) will test this bearish narrative. If PDD’s stock stays above $95, the puts expire worthless—but if it falls below, holders could profit handsomely.

For investors, this creates a strategic crossroads. Bulls might see the puts as overdone—a buying opportunity if the stock bounces from oversold levels. Bears, meanwhile, may add to their put positions, betting on PDD’s struggles to reignite growth.

Conclusion: PDD’s Volatility—Risk or Reward?

PDD’s second-place status in options block trades isn’t just about size—it’s about sentiment. The $95 puts reflect a market pricing in significant downside, yet the company’s growth in Southeast Asia and AI innovation could yet turn the tide.

Key data points:
- Stock Drop: 28.5% decline to $100 in late 2024.
- Put Activity: 65.43% of options volume bearish, with $1.77M in institutional bets.
- Apple’s Lead: 45% block trade share vs. PDD’s 22%, highlighting stability over growth.

For investors, the question isn’t whether PDD is risky—it’s whether the risks are priced in. If the stock rebounds above $95 by expiration, the puts could become a catalyst for renewed buying. But if not, the bears may have the last laugh. Either way, PDD’s story remains a high-stakes tale of growth, volatility, and the fine line between second place and second chances.