PC Market Resurgence: Supply Chain and Component Sector Opportunities in the Windows 10 Transition

The global PC market is experiencing a significant resurgence in 2025, driven by the impending end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. This transition is creating a surge in hardware demand, with PC shipments reaching 72 million units in Q3 2025-a 6.8% year-on-year increase, according to an Omdia report. The Asia/Pacific region, particularly Japan, has seen double-digit growth due to hardware refresh cycles and educational initiatives, as shown in IDC data, while North America faces headwinds from U.S. import tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty (IDC data). This shift is reshaping the supply chain and component sectors, offering strategic opportunities for investors.

Component Sector Dynamics: CPUs, GPUs, and Memory

The transition to Windows 11 is driving demand for hardware that meets its stringent requirements, including TPM 2.0, Secure Boot, and compatible processors. Intel and AMD are central to this shift. Intel's Panther Lake Core Ultra series and AMD's Ryzen 7040 processors are being adopted to support Windows 11's enhanced security and AI capabilities, according to the Omdia report. AMD's CPU market share grew by 16.6% in 2025, while Intel's share declined by 10%, as reported in an AllTechNerd analysis, reflecting a broader industry trend toward AMD's competitive pricing and performance.

For memory suppliers, the demand for high-speed NVMe SSDs and HBM3 (High Bandwidth Memory) is surging. Samsung and SK Hynix, the top two HBM suppliers, reported Q3 2025 revenues of $21.712 billion and $12.834 billion, respectively, in a Tom's Hardware analysis, driven by AI infrastructure and Windows 11-compatible systems. HBM3's market share in DRAM sales is projected to rise from 13.6% in 2024 to 19.2% in 2025, according to the AllTechNerd analysis, underscoring its critical role in AI-enabled PCs.

Qualcomm is also benefiting from the transition, with its Snapdragon X2 Elite and X Plus processors gaining traction in the AI PC segment. The company's Q3 2025 revenue rose 10% year-on-year to $10.4 billion, driven by growth in automotive and IoT segments, per the Qualcomm earnings release. Its collaboration with Microsoft on Copilot+ PCs, which integrate NPUs for on-device AI, positions it as a key player in the next phase of computing, as noted in the Omdia report.

Financial Performance and Investment Potential

The financial performance of key component manufacturers highlights divergent trajectories. AMD's Q3 2025 revenue grew 27.2% year-on-year, outpacing Intel, which reported flat or declining growth, according to the AllTechNerd analysis. Intel's struggles in the data center and AI segments, coupled with market share losses to AMD, have led to a "Hold" stock rating from analysts, with a projected decline in its stock price over the next year, per the Tom's Hardware analysis.

NVIDIA, while not directly tied to PC shipments, is capitalizing on the AI boom. Its Q3 2025 revenue is expected to reach $32.5 billion, driven by demand for GPUs in data centers and AI infrastructure, as reported by Tom's Hardware. However, its PC-related revenue from Windows 11 transitions remains unspecified in the data.

Samsung and SK Hynix's dominance in memory markets is further solidified by their HBM3 sales to AI clients like NVIDIA, according to the Tom's Hardware analysis. Their Q3 2025 revenues surpassed Intel's, reflecting the growing importance of memory in AI and high-performance computing.

Strategic Opportunities and Risks

The transition to Windows 11 also presents opportunities for secondary markets. Pre-2017 devices, incompatible with Windows 11, are losing value, while 2018–2020 models with 8th–10th Gen Intel CPUs remain viable for upgrades or Linux repurposing, as outlined in the Omdia report. This creates a niche for refurbished device resellers, particularly in cost-sensitive markets.

However, geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariffs on semiconductor imports pose risks. For example, 90% of U.S. laptops are manufactured in China, and supply chain volatility is forcing organizations to adopt forward-buying strategies to lock in pricing, noted in the Omdia report. Investors should monitor these macroeconomic factors alongside hardware demand.

Conclusion

The Windows 10 transition is a catalyst for the PC market's resurgence, with supply chain and component sectors poised for growth. AMD and Qualcomm are well-positioned to benefit from their competitive product portfolios and AI integration, while Samsung and SK Hynix's memory dominance ensures steady revenue. Intel faces challenges but could regain momentum with its Panther Lake and AI initiatives. Investors should prioritize companies with strong ties to Windows 11's hardware requirements and AI capabilities, while remaining cautious about macroeconomic risks.