PBF Energy's 15min chart shows KDJ Death Cross and Bearish Marubozu.

PBF Energy's 15-minute chart has recently exhibited a KDJ Death Cross and a Bearish Marubozu at 06/18/2025 13:30. This indicates that the momentum of the stock price has shifted towards the downside, suggesting a potential further decrease in value. Sellers currently hold control of the market, and it is likely that this bearish momentum will continue.

The oil markets have experienced significant volatility in recent months, driven by a combination of trade tariffs, OPEC supply hikes, and geopolitical tensions. After reaching a high of $81/bbl in January, the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell sharply in April to below $60/bbl, the lowest level in four years [1]. The decline was primarily attributed to concerns about weak crude oil demand and the imposition of trade tariffs by the US.

The two key players in the escalating trade conflict, the US and China, are also the world's largest crude oil consumers, accounting for about 20% and 16%, respectively, of the estimated 104 million b/d of global demand in 2024 [1]. Any economic deceleration centered on these two economies could significantly dampen global oil demand outlook. However, the market saw a significant rise after the breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations on May 11, 2025. The agreement to temporarily reduce tariffs improved market sentiment, leading to an increase in oil prices [1].

On the supply side, OPEC+ members have accelerated planned production increases. Eight member countries announced a collective output hike of 411,000 b/d for June, the second consecutive month of ramped-up production [1]. This strategy has introduced a bearish undertone to the market, as the evolving pace of unwinding production cuts and inconsistent compliance across member nations contribute to supply-side uncertainty. Additionally, the US has introduced new sanctions targeting Iranian and Venezuelan oil, further complicating global supply dynamics [1].

Despite the Trump administration’s pro-production stance, US light tight oil (LTO) output is beginning to lose momentum. With oil prices falling below $60/bbl, drilling activities are becoming less economically feasible for some producers, posing a risk to supply growth [1]. However, the non-OPEC+ group is projected to reach record production levels in 2025 and 2026, driven by the launch of significant new conventional offshore projects [1].

Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, continue to threaten global oil supply, heightening the risk of price volatility [1]. The potential for renewed or escalating hostilities poses a serious threat to energy trade flows and overall supply stability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made notable cuts to its global growth forecast, cautioning that increasing trade tensions and greater policy uncertainties are expected to significantly affect global economic activity [1]. The IMF projects global economic growth to fall to 2.8% in 2025 and to 3.0% in 2026, well below the January forecast of 3.3% for both years [1]. The US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first quarterly contraction since first-quarter 2022 [1]. Meanwhile, China is sliding deeper into economic weakness, exacerbated by external shocks, and the People's Bank of China has implemented monetary easing policies to inject liquidity into the economy [1].

The economic performance of Europe has exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2025, with the eurozone experiencing an annualized GDP growth of 1.4%, matched by a similar growth rate in the UK [1]. However, the outlook for oil demand remains uncertain. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, lowering it from 1 million b/d to 740,000 b/d due to global economic challenges and record sales of electric vehicles (EVs) [1]. Despite this, oil consumption saw a strong year-on-year increase of 1.2 million b/d in the first quarter of 2025, largely driven by a colder-than-average winter [1].

Emerging Asian economies remain the primary engines of demand expansion, with petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha, LPG, and ethane leading product-level increases in 2025 and 2026 [1]. However, demand for transport fuels is slowing due to the widespread adoption of EVs. Chinese oil demand growth is now forecast at 134,000 b/d in 2025, down from a January projection of 220,000 b/d, amid trade hostilities with the US and a slowing economy [1]. Indian oil demand is expected to grow 127,000 b/d in 2025, driven by rising demand for gasoline and LPG [1]. Conversely, demand in OECD countries is projected to decline by 120,000 b/d in 2025 and by a further 240,000 b/d in 2026 [1].

In summary, the oil markets are currently navigating a complex landscape of trade tensions, supply hikes, and geopolitical uncertainties. While the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to market sentiment, the overall outlook remains uncertain, with significant risks on both the supply and demand sides.

References:
[1] https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/55296897/oil-markets-turbulent-amid-tariffs-opec-supply-hikes