PayPal's Resilience: A Deep Dive into its Recent Performance and Investment Potential Below $87

PayPal's (PYPL) stock has rallied 41% this year, outperforming the broader market, as the company delivered strong third-quarter results and raised its full-year guidance. But is it still worth investing in PayPal while its stock is trading below $87? To answer this question, let's examine the company's recent performance, growth prospects, and valuation.



PayPal's third-quarter earnings report showcased its resilience and adaptability in the face of headwinds. The company's transaction margin dollars increased by 8%, while net revenues grew by 6%. GAAP operating income and non-GAAP operating income both surged by 18%, with GAAP operating margin expanding by 198 basis points to 17.7%, and non-GAAP operating margin expanding by 194 basis points to 18.8%. GAAP EPS rose by 6%, and non-GAAP EPS increased by 22%. These strong results demonstrate PayPal's ability to navigate challenging macroeconomic conditions and maintain its growth trajectory.



PayPal's growth prospects are expected to remain robust, with analysts forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% in revenue and 11% in earnings per share (EPS) from 2023 to 2026. Although these rates are lower than the company's historical performance, they still indicate solid growth potential. PayPal's high-growth days may be over, but its stock looks reasonably valued at around 18x next year's earnings.

However, it's essential to consider the challenges PayPal faces, such as slow active account growth and intense competition from platforms like Block's Cash App and Stripe. The loss of eBay's business has also impacted PayPal's growth, but the company has managed to offset this by squeezing more revenues from its existing users.

PayPal's cost-cutting initiatives and investments, including buybacks, are contributing to its financial performance. The company expects high-teens growth in non-GAAP EPS and a 30% increase in free cash flow, which it plans to return to investors through $6 billion in buybacks. PayPal is also investing in new features and partnerships to enhance its ecosystem's stickiness and average TPV per active account.

Despite these challenges, PayPal's stock is not particularly cheap, trading at around 18x next year's earnings. Although it's not expensive, it's also not a value stock. Investors may want to consider higher-growth alternatives before PayPal overcomes its long-term challenges.

In conclusion, PayPal's recent performance and growth prospects suggest that it is a resilient and adaptable company with a strong future ahead. However, the challenges it faces and its relatively high valuation may give investors pause. As always, it's crucial to conduct thorough research and stay up-to-date with market trends before making any investment decisions.