PayPal’s Bold Bet on Conversational Commerce: A First-Mover Play for Dominance in AI-Driven Transactions

Theodore QuinnThursday, May 15, 2025 5:55 am ET
37min read

The支付巨头PayPal is doubling down on its future with a partnership that could redefine how consumers shop, book services, and transact online. By embedding its payment infrastructure into the AI chat interface of Perplexity—a fast-growing search and commerce platform—PayPal has positioned itself at the forefront of conversational commerce, a nascent but explosive arena where AI-driven interactions directly drive transactions. This move isn’t just about incremental growth; it’s a strategic bid to lock in a first-mover advantage in a $14 billion valuation opportunity—and investors should take notice before competitors catch up.

The First-Mover Edge in AI Commerce

Conversational commerce—a market expected to hit $120 billion by 2028—is where users can execute purchases directly through AI-powered chat interactions. PayPal’s integration with Perplexity’s platform turns this vision into reality. Users can book travel, buy products, or secure concert tickets with a single click via PayPal’s “passkey” checkout, eliminating the friction of multi-step checkouts. This is a game-changer: 70% of abandoned carts online are due to checkout complexity. By slashing this barrier,

isn’t just serving Perplexity’s 15 million monthly active users—it’s creating a blueprint for how AI will transform e-commerce.

The partnership’s scale is staggering. Perplexity’s AI interface now taps into PayPal’s global network of 430 million active accounts across 200 markets, with robust fraud detection and security protocols. This isn’t a niche experiment. For context, Perplexity’s user base grew 50% in 2024 alone—a trajectory that could accelerate as its AI-driven search and transaction capabilities outpace rivals like Google and ChatGPT, which lack native checkout integration.


PayPal’s stock has lagged competitors like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) in recent years, but this partnership could shift the narrative. Analysts estimate that embedded payments in AI chat could add $500 million to $1 billion in annual revenue for PayPal by 2026—a critical boost as traditional payment volume growth slows in saturated markets.

Why the Risks Are Overblown—and the Reward Is Massive

Skeptics will point to Perplexity’s valuation drop from $18 billion to $14 billion or its 15M user base (small vs. Google’s 3B). But this misses the bigger picture: PayPal isn’t betting on Perplexity alone. It’s building a platform that can replicate this model with other AI chat leaders, leveraging its decades of payment infrastructure. Visa and Mastercard have launched competing “agent pay” initiatives, but PayPal’s direct integration into Perplexity’s AI brain—handling logistics, tracking, and support—gives it a 6- to 12-month lead in execution.

Moreover, the $14 billion valuation reflects a recalibration to market realities, not failure. Perplexity’s premium subscription ($20/month) already has 100,000–200,000 paying users, and its average session time (11 minutes) suggests strong engagement. As AI commerce adoption accelerates—driven by younger, digitally native consumers—PayPal’s embedded payments will capture a disproportionate share of transaction fees.

Act Now: This Catalyst Is Underappreciated

Investors have yet to price in the full potential of PayPal’s AI commerce pivot. The stock trades at just 18x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 25x, despite this transformative growth lever. Competitors like Amazon and Shopify are also eyeing conversational commerce, but PayPal’s early move with Perplexity gives it a strategic moat in checkout integration—a barrier to entry no pure-play AI company can match overnight.

The urgency is clear: When Visa and Mastercard inevitably replicate this model, PayPal will already own the most advanced AI-commerce ecosystem. For investors, the window to buy PYPL at a discount before this becomes widely recognized is closing fast.

Final Call: Buy PayPal Before the AI Commerce Surge

PayPal’s partnership with Perplexity isn’t just a defensive move—it’s an offensive play to dominate a $120 billion market. With its first-mover advantage, global scale, and the power to reduce checkout friction for millions, this could be the catalyst to revalue PayPal at $300+ per share (up from $160 today) within 18–24 months. The risks are minimal compared to the upside: this is a generational shift in commerce. Don’t let competitors copy this strategy first—act now.

The data is clear: Traditional payment growth is stagnating, but conversational commerce is exploding. Investors who bet on PayPal now will own a piece of the future—before it’s too late.