Payoneer's Resilience in a Macroeconomic Downturn: Why B2B Expansion and Stablecoin Innovation Make PAYO a Buy

In an era of persistent macroeconomic headwinds-from inflationary pressures to geopolitical shocks-investors are increasingly prioritizing capital allocation toward businesses that demonstrate sectoral resilience. Payoneer (PAYO), a global leader in cross-border payments, has emerged as a compelling case study in this regard. By strategically pivoting toward high-growth B2B markets and pioneering stablecoin integration, the company has not only weathered recent downturns but also positioned itself to outperform peers. This analysis argues that Payoneer's dual focus on B2B expansion and financial innovation makes it a buy, even in uncertain macroeconomic environments.

Strategic Sectoral Resilience: B2B as a Growth Engine

Payoneer's B2B segment has become a cornerstone of its resilience. In 2023, total B2B payment volume grew 13% year-over-year in Q4, with particularly strong performance in APAC, SAMEA, and Latin America. This momentum accelerated in 2024-2025, as B2B revenue surged 37% in Q1 2025, contributing to a 42% compound annual growth rate over the past two years. The company's strategic partnerships, such as its collaboration with Alibaba.com in India, have further solidified its position in high-potential markets.

Crucially, Payoneer's B2B focus has driven profitability. After posting a $14 million loss in 2023, the company turned its core business profitable, generating $14 million in core adjusted EBITDA in 2024. This turnaround was enabled by disciplined cost management and a stable headcount, which insulated Payoneer from the volatility of global disruptions like the war in Ukraine and the SVB collapse. As CEO John Caplan noted at the 53rd JPMorgan Conference, the company's "global presence and adaptability" have been key to sustaining growth amid macroeconomic stress.

Stablecoin Innovation: Navigating the "Last Mile" Challenge

While B2B expansion provides near-term resilience, Payoneer's foray into stablecoins signals long-term strategic foresight. The company is actively exploring stablecoin off-ramping to local fiat currencies and integrating digital assets into real-time treasury management systems, particularly in partnership with Citi. These initiatives align with broader trends: stablecoins are increasingly seen as a solution for faster, cheaper cross-border transactions, a market Payoneer is well-positioned to dominate.

However, Payoneer's CFO has acknowledged significant hurdles, particularly in developing infrastructure to scale stablecoin transactions. The "last mile" challenge-ensuring seamless integration into existing payment ecosystems-remains a sector-wide issue. Yet, as the IMF notes, stablecoins could reshape global finance by enabling dollarization and reducing reliance on traditional banking systems, provided regulatory frameworks evolve to mitigate risks like capital flow volatility. Payoneer's cautious but innovative approach positions it to capitalize on this transition while managing systemic risks.

Capital Allocation in Uncertain Times: Why Payoneer Stands Out

Payoneer's resilience is not accidental but a product of disciplined capital allocation. By prioritizing B2B over high-cost consumer segments, the company has insulated itself from macroeconomic shocks that disproportionately affect retail spending. Meanwhile, its stablecoin initiatives, though nascent, align with a structural shift in cross-border payments.

The company's financials reinforce this thesis. Payoneer recently raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $1.07 billion, reflecting confidence in its B2B and stablecoin strategies. With a growing EBITDA margin and a debt-free balance sheet, Payoneer offers both growth and stability-rare traits in today's market. For investors seeking exposure to a sector (cross-border payments) poised for disruption, Payoneer's dual focus on B2B and digital innovation represents a compelling value proposition.

Conclusion

Payoneer's ability to thrive amid macroeconomic turbulence underscores the importance of strategic sectoral positioning. By doubling down on B2B expansion and pioneering stablecoin integration, the company has created a moat that transcends cyclical volatility. For investors, this translates to a rare combination of near-term resilience and long-term growth potential. In a world where capital allocation demands precision, Payoneer's playbook offers a blueprint for success-and a compelling reason to buy PAYO.