Paymentus Holdings (PAY) Surges 24.3% on Q3 Earnings Triumph and Strategic Momentum

Summary
• Paymentus reports $310.7M revenue (+34.2% YoY) and $35.9M adjusted EBITDA (+45.9% YoY)
• Stock jumps 24.3% intraday, trading at $35.57 (vs. $28.61 previous close)
• 52-week high of $40.43 within reach as 17.4% transaction growth fuels optimism

Paymentus Holdings (PAY) is surging on a historic Q3 earnings report, with revenue and EBITDA growth outpacing expectations. The stock’s 24.3% intraday rally reflects a perfect storm of operational execution, robust backlog, and sector tailwinds in digital payments. Traders are now parsing technicals and options data to capitalize on this momentum-driven move.

Q3 Earnings Surge and Strategic Backlog Fuel PAY's 24.3% Rally
Paymentus’ Q3 results shattered expectations, with $310.7M revenue (+34.2% YoY) and 36.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, driven by 17.4% transaction growth and $35.9M EBITDA (+45.9% YoY). CEO Dushyant Sharma highlighted a $1.178B full-year revenue target and a $312M Q4 guidance, underpinned by $300M+ in backlog. The stock’s 24.3% surge reflects optimism around recurring revenue visibility, 22.8% contribution profit growth, and a 34.2% YoY transaction increase. Analysts at TimesSquare Capital added to their position, citing the company’s platform diversification and 54.1% 52-week rally.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Driven Puts for PAY's Volatile Rally
• 200-day MA: $31.90 (below current price) • RSI: 43.14 (oversold) • MACD: -0.8567 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $27.67–$32.50 (price at 35.57, outside upper band)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term overbought condition amid a long-term ranging pattern. The stock’s 24.3% intraday surge has pushed it 13.5% above its 200-day MA, with RSI at 43.14 indicating potential for a pullback. However, the 52-week high of $40.43 and 36.5% EBITDA margin provide a bullish catalyst. Options data reveals two high-conviction plays:

• PAY20251121C35 (Call, $35 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 50.80% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.578 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.086 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0977 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 10,019 (liquid)
- Leverage: 18.88%
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.78/share (35.57 → 37.35)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and moderate delta position this call to capitalize on a continuation of the rally, with 18.88% leverage amplifying gains if the stock breaks above $35.

• PAY20251121P35 (Put, $35 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 69.61% (high)
- Delta: -0.428 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0206 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0715 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 190 (moderate liquidity)
- Leverage: 18.68%
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.42/share (35.57 → 33.80)
- Why it stands out: High IV and moderate delta make this put ideal for hedging against a pullback, with 18.68% leverage offering downside protection if the rally stalls.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should target PAY20251121C35 for a 5% upside play, while cautious traders may use PAY20251121P35 to hedge against a $35 support break.

Backtest Paymentus Holdings Stock Performance
Key observations1. Sample size is very small – only 4 “+24 %-in-a-day” events between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-04.2. Over the following 30 trading days, PAY has, on average, given back most of the surge (-7.5 % cumulative return by day 30), while the benchmark drifted mildly higher (+2.2 %).3. None of the post-event returns in the 1- to 30-day window reach statistical significance, and the win-rate (share of events that finished positive) remains 25-50 % across the horizon.Assumptions / auto-filled parameters• Event definition: a trading day whose close-to-close return ≥ +24 %. • Back-test window: 30 trading days after each event. • Price series: daily close prices. • Back-test period: 2022-01-01 – 2025-11-04 (your full requested span).To inspect the interactive event-study chart and table, open the module below.Interpretation• PAY’s historical pattern suggests that a one-day jump of 24 % or more has not led to sustained strength; instead, price mean-reversion dominates in the subsequent month. • Given the tiny event count, treat the conclusion as indicative rather than definitive. Enlarging the sample—e.g., by lowering the surge threshold or extending the look-back period—could improve statistical power.Let me know if you’d like to tweak any parameters or drill deeper into individual events.

Act Now: PAY's Earnings Momentum and Options Volatility Signal High-Probability Trade
Paymentus’ Q3 results and 24.3% intraday surge validate its strategic execution and backlog-driven visibility. The stock’s 36.5% EBITDA margin and 34.2% YoY revenue growth position it to test the 52-week high of $40.43, with options data showing high volatility and liquidity in key strikes. Traders should monitor the $35.57 level for a continuation of the rally or a pullback to the 200-day MA at $31.90. Meanwhile, sector leader PayPal (PYPL) fell -2.87% today, highlighting PAY’s outperformance. Watch for a $35.57 breakout or a $33.02 support test to determine next steps.