Paychex Inc Reports Stable Small Business Labor Market for First Half of 2025.

Paychex Inc's Small Business Employment Watch report for H1 2025 shows a stable labor market for small businesses in the US, with minimal fluctuations in job growth and hourly earnings growth at 2.79%, below three percent. The Midwest region leads in small business job growth for the 13th consecutive month, while Ohio regained the top rank among states for small business job growth. However, hourly earnings growth remains subdued, and the manufacturing sector shows the largest decline in the small business jobs index.

U.S. Treasury yields advanced on Tuesday following the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, which showed the labor market remained resilient with a rise in job openings for May. The U.S. 10-year yield (US10Y) climbed 3.5 basis points (bps) to 4.261%, while the 30-year yield (US30YT=RR) edged up 1.3 bps to 4.789%. The two-year yield (US2YT=RR) also increased by 3.9 bps to 3.760%.

The JOLTS report indicated that job openings rose unexpectedly in May, increasing by 374,000 to 7.769 million, surpassing economists' forecasts of 7.30 million vacancies. Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO, noted that the labor market remains tight, with a skills shortage being a key factor. This data aligned with comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who reiterated the central bank's stance of being patient on cutting interest rates, pending further data on the impact of tariffs on inflation.

The Senate's action on President Donald Trump's tax cut and spending bill also influenced the market. The Senate remained in session through Monday night to vote on amendments, with Republicans struggling to pass the legislation. Market strategist Will Compernolle noted that the fiscal package's progress had been slowly priced in, and the Senate's voting outcome could serve as a catalyst for market moves.

Meanwhile, Paychex Inc's Small Business Employment Watch report for H1 2025 revealed a stable labor market for small businesses in the U.S., with minimal fluctuations in job growth and hourly earnings growth at 2.79%. The Midwest region led in small business job growth for the 13th consecutive month, while Ohio regained the top rank among states. However, hourly earnings growth remained subdued, and the manufacturing sector showed the largest decline in the small business jobs index.

In summary, the U.S. Treasury yields rose in response to resilient labor market data, while the Senate's fiscal package remained a key focus for investors. Paychex Inc's report highlighted a stable labor market for small businesses, with the Midwest region and Ohio leading in job growth.

References:
[1] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3SY0M1:0-us-yields-rise-after-labor-market-data-shows-resilience/
[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/06/30/a-rebound-for-paychex-stock/