PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) 24-Hour Market Overview

• Price declined sharply after 19:30 ET with a key support level forming at 0.0314
• Volatility spiked mid-night as price dropped 1.47% during the PAXGBTC 24-hour session
• Momentum weakened as RSI crossed below 50 while volume surged during the bearish move
• Bollinger Bands widened at 02:00 ET-1 indicating increased uncertainty and potential range-bound action
• A bullish correction began at 07:00 ET, with Fibonacci retracement levels showing strong buying interest

At 12:00 ET–1, PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03202 and traded within a range between 0.03206 and 0.0314 over the next 24 hours, closing at 0.03163 by 12:00 ET. Total volume for the session was 156.45, and notional turnover reached 4.97. The price experienced a strong bearish reversal between 19:30 and 20:30 ET, dropping nearly 1.8% in that period.

Structure & Formations

PAXGBTC formed a key support level at 0.0314, confirmed by a series of bearish consolidations and a hammer pattern at 02:00 ET–1. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:30 ET as price dropped below a short-term resistance level at 0.03205. The following 90-minute session confirmed this bearish shift. A bullish correction began at 07:00 ET with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.03148 showing significant buying interest. A doji formed at 08:45 ET, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion of the rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period line early in the session, signaling short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA then crossed below the 100-period MA on the daily timeframe, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The price closed below the 200-period MA, indicating further bearish alignment and potential for a deeper correction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line around 19:30 ET, confirming the bearish move. RSI dropped sharply from 62 to 42 during the same period, signaling weakening momentum. However, RSI rebounded slightly after 07:00 ET, reaching 55 by 10:00 ET, indicating renewed buying pressure. The oscillator remained within neutral territory, suggesting no overbought or oversold extremes, but the bearish divergence between price and RSI in the early hours was clear.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 20:30 ET–1 session, with the upper band reaching 0.03206 and the lower band dropping to 0.0314. Price spent most of the session within the bands but touched the lower boundary repeatedly, indicating strong support at that level. A contraction occurred briefly at 06:00 ET before another widening phase began, suggesting increased uncertainty and potential for a breakout or false breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:30 ET with a 18.4423 trade volume and 0.03154 price, confirming the bearish reversal. Turnover was also higher during this period, validating the price action. After 07:00 ET, volume remained relatively steady but lower than the peak, indicating that the bullish correction was not accompanied by strong conviction. Divergence between the price rise and volume during the 08:00–09:00 ET period suggested weaker demand.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci level at 61.8% (0.03148) served as a strong support level during the 07:00–09:00 ET rally. The 50% retracement level at 0.0318 was tested twice during the session and held as resistance. Price failed to reclaim the 38.2% level at 0.0321 during the morning rally, suggesting a lack of follow-through from bullish participants.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described in the text focuses on identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels and using them in conjunction with RSI and volume to signal potential entries. For this session, the 61.8% level at 0.03148 was a strong support level, and RSI showed a bounce from 42 to 55 during the 07:00–10:00 ET rally, suggesting the backtest could have triggered a long entry at that point. A trailing stop could have been placed at the 50% level at 0.0318, which was tested twice during the session. The volume profile during this period remained steady, adding confirmation to the potential trade. The strategy appears to align well with the observed price behavior in this session.