PAX Gold/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• PAXGBTC traded in a tight range overnight before breaking higher toward 0.03972.
• Volume surged in the early hours of 2025-11-05, coinciding with the high.
• RSI and MACD suggest momentum is strong but not overbought.
• Price remains within a 6-week range and near a potential 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
• A bullish breakout could face resistance at 0.03952, a previous pivot high.

PAX Gold/Bitcoin (PAXGBTC) opened at 0.03858 on 2025-11-04 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03884 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range extended from 0.03831 to 0.03972, with total volume of 590.2675 units and notional turnover of 22.8844 BTC. The price action exhibited a strong overnight rally but has since consolidated around 0.0388.

The 15-minute chart shows a series of bullish consolidations and a breakout candle forming at 0.03972. Key support levels appear to be forming around 0.0385–0.0387, while resistance is concentrated near 0.0393 and 0.03972. A potential bearish divergence in volume appears on the 0200–0300 ET timeframe, suggesting caution for further upward momentum.

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a slight bullish bias, with the 50-period line just above the 20-period line. MACD remains in positive territory, signaling sustained bullish momentum, while RSI stands at 55–60, indicating strong but not overextended momentum. The Bollinger Bands have widened during the overnight rally, suggesting increased volatility and potential for continuation or reversal patterns.

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.03831–0.03972 swing, the price currently sits near the 38.2% retracement level at 0.0389–0.0390. This area appears to be a strategic pivot for near-term direction. The 61.8% level is at 0.0393, where a potential test could occur if the bulls maintain control.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest seeks to evaluate the profitability of a strategy triggered by the occurrence of a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the PAXGBTC pair. This pattern typically forms after a downtrend, with a small bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle that fully engulfs the prior body, signaling a potential reversal.

The proposed strategy involves entering a long position at the close of the engulfing candle and holding for a 5-day period. To ensure accuracy, the system requires a recognized symbol for the PAXG/BTC pair. A common format for this pair on major exchanges includes symbols like BINANCE:PAXGBTC or BINANCE:PAXG_BTC. If such a symbol is used, the backtest can be reliably conducted using historical data.

If the symbol is unavailable or unrecognized, an alternative approach would be to use PAXG/USDT instead. The PAXG/USDT pair is more widely traded and provides greater data availability, though it changes the benchmark from BTC. If you confirm the correct symbol, or if you already have a list of dates where the Bullish Engulfing pattern has historically occurred, the backtest can proceed.